Firefly 是稀缺的"硬件+软件"一体化太空防务平台,IPO+SciTec 并购后切入 Golden Dome ($185B) 与 CLPS 2.0 ($6B) 两大高增长池,$1.3B Backlog 提供近端能见度。上行关键在于 Alpha Block 2 年发射爬坡至 6+ 次与 SciTec 软件毛利率突破 30%,下行警戒线为政府拨款冻结或正 FCF 时点推后至 2029。以 18 个月 EV/Sales 13x(FY27E 中值)为定价锚,目标价 $48,与当前 $49.50 基本持平,Risk-Reward 偏中性。
| 分部 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | 13.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| Spacecraft Solutions | 67.6 | 50.0 | 21.4 | 9.2 | 50.7 |
| Total Revenue | 80.9 | 57.7 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 55.9 |
| Launch YoY% | +156% | n/a | -29% | +113% | n/a |
| Spacecraft YoY% | +33% | n/a | +134% | -49% | n/a |
数据来源: 10-Q Q1 2026, Q3 2025, Q2 2025; Q1 2026 Call Prepared Remarks。注: Q4 2025分部数据来自Call Transcript,Q1 2025 Launch收入由总收入减Spacecraft推算(假设Spacecraft Q1 2025为$50.7M基于Q1 2026 Call提及的Mission 1确认)。
| 指标 | TTM (截至Q1 2026) | FY2025 | FY2024* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 185.6 | 159.9 | n/a |
| YoY Growth % | n/a | +163% | n/a |
| Gross Margin % | 19.2% | n/a | n/a |
| Operating Margin % | -158.6% | n/a | n/a |
| Net Income ($M) | -335.0 | n/a | n/a |
| EPS (Diluted) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| FCF ($M) | -280.4 | n/a | n/a |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 160.1 | n/a | n/a |
注: FY2024完整数据缺失,TLM由Q1 2026+Q4/Q3/Q2 2025加总;FY2025收入来自Q4 2025 Call;毛利率/净利率TTM由季度加权计算。
| 指标 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 80.9 | 57.7 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 55.9 | n/a |
| YoY Growth % | +45% | n/a | +38% | -26% | n/a | n/a |
| Gross Margin % | 21.6% | 27.7% | 27.6% | 25.7% | n/a | n/a |
| Operating Margin % | -118.3% | n/a | -202.1% | -351.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$0.61 | n/a | -$0.95 | -$0.56 | -$0.50 | n/a |
| FCF ($M) | -78.9 | -79.3 | -62.0 | -37.3 | -57.0 | n/a |
注: Q4 2024数据缺失;Q1 2025 EPS来自2-Year Quarterly Table;Operating Margin由Op Loss/Rev计算。
| 分部 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Rev ($M) | 13.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 6.3 |
| Launch YoY% | +156% | n/a | -29% | +113% |
| Spacecraft Rev ($M) | 67.6 | 50.0 | 21.4 | 9.2 |
| Spacecraft YoY% | +33% | n/a | +134% | -49% |
| Segment OP Margin | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
注: 分部营业利润未披露;Q4 2025数据来自Call Transcript。
"Firefly Aerospace Inc. is not just participating in the space economy, we are shaping it." — CEO, Q1 2026 Call "We are reiterating our outlook of $420 million to $450 million, consistent with what we gave on the March call." — CFO, Q1 2026 Call "The Moon is now a permanent destination... initial phases represent a $20 billion opportunity over seven years." — CEO, Q1 2026 Call "SciTech’s FORGE program is operational since last September, processing over 1,000 missile messages for national defense." — CEO, Q4 2025 Call Q&A "80% of midpoint 2026 revenue already booked; NASA lander acceleration to monthly cadence (2027) not included in guidance." — CEO, Q4 2025 Call Q&A "Alpha is differentiated as the only operational 1-ton-to-orbit rocket." — CEO, Q2 2025 Call "We generated revenue of $15.5 million [Q2 2025]... currently expect revenue will be in a range of $133 million to $145 million [FY25]." — CFO, Q2 2025 Call "This event [test anomaly] was not a design issue... corrective actions include enhanced fluid system checks and automated alerts." — CEO, Q3 2025 Call
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 460 | 780 | 1,150 |
| YoY Growth % | +188% | +70% | +47% |
| Gross Margin % | 24% | 29% | 32% |
| Operating Margin % | -55% | -10% | +12% |
| FCF ($M) | -220 | +30 | +180 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 164 | 168 | 172 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$80–$88,中值 $84
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 435 | 650 | 880 |
| YoY Growth % | +172% | +49% | +35% |
| Gross Margin % | 22% | 25% | 26% |
| Operating Margin % | -75% | -25% | -5% |
| FCF ($M) | -260 | -80 | +40 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 164 | 168 | 172 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$48–$54,中值 $51
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 360 | 420 | 500 |
| YoY Growth % | +125% | +17% | +19% |
| Gross Margin % | 18% | 19% | 20% |
| Operating Margin % | -110% | -70% | -45% |
| FCF ($M) | -310 | -200 | -120 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 166 | 178 | 195 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$13–$18,中值 $15
| 指标 | 当前值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| TTM P/E | -23.59 | Header/TTM |
| Forward P/E | N/A | TTM Fundamentals |
| EV/EBITDA | -29.73 | Header/TTM |
| P/S (TTM) | 42.90 | Header/TTM |
| KPI | 频率 | 警戒值 | 为何重要 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha 发射次数 | 季度 | <1次/Q | 验证 Block 2 可靠性及 FY27 6次目标可行性 |
| 综合毛利率 | 季度 | <20% | Bear 情景阈值;低于此则正 FCF 推迟至 2029+ |
| Backlog 净变动 | 季度 | 环比<-10% | 监测政府预算削减或合同终止风险 |
| SciTec 收入增速 | 季度 | <15% YoY | 验证 FORGE/Golden Dome 协同效应是否兑现 |
| 季度 FCF Burn | 季度 | >-$90M | 触及则流动性跑道<18月,触发稀释融资风险 |
| SBC 占营收比 | 季度 | >15% | 监控股权稀释速度,保护每股价值 |
| Eclipse 开发里程碑 | 事件 | 延期>3月 | 影响 FY27 星座发射窗口抢占及 Bull 估值 |
| 政府拨款状态 | 实时 | CR/停摆 | 直接冲击 CLPS/Golden Dome 收入确认节奏 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 关注点 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | Alpha Flight 8 | Block 2 可靠性验证;发射周转效率 |
| 2026-08 | Q2 2026 Earnings | 毛利率趋势;SciTec 整合后首个完整季度表现 |
| 2026-Q3 | Blue Ghost Mission 2 | CLPS 任务执行;月球数据货币化进展 |
| 2026-Q4 | Golden Dome 合同更新 | SciTec 软件增量收入确认;FY27 能见度 |
| 2027-H1 | Eclipse 首飞窗口 | 中型火箭市场准入;星座发射订单获取 |
| 2027-Q2 | FY27 中期业绩 | 全年收入桥接验证;正 FCF 时点前瞻指引 |
| 2027-H2 | CLPS 2.0 授标预期 | 重型着陆器单价;Backlog 结构优化 |
| TBD | 瑞典发射场启用 | 国际响应式发射能力;非美客户拓展 |
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 18m IRR | 3y IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 悲观 | 0.30 | $15 | -47% | -32% |
| 中性 | 0.45 | $51 | +2% | +1% |
| 乐观 | 0.25 | $84 | +47% | +19% |
| 加权 | 1.00 | $48 | -2% | -1% |
Thesis:Firefly 是稀缺的"硬件+软件"一体化太空防务平台,IPO+SciTec 并购后切入 Golden Dome ($185B) 与 CLPS 2.0 ($6B) 两大高增长池,$1.3B Backlog 提供近端能见度。上行关键在于 Alpha Block 2 年发射爬坡至 6+ 次与 SciTec 软件毛利率突破 30%,下行警戒线为政府拨款冻结或正 FCF 时点推后至 2029。以 18 个月 EV/Sales 13x(FY27E 中值)为定价锚,目标价 $48,与当前 $49.50 基本持平,Risk-Reward 偏中性。
Confidence: low(IPO <1 年,缺失历史/同业倍数与 FY27 官方指引,情景区间宽)