Firefly 是少数同时拥有端到端发射、月面着陆与 AI 防务软件能力的公开市场标的,SciTec 收购使其切入 Golden Dome 与 CLPS 2.0 两条数十亿美元政府赛道,FY26 指引 80% 已锁定提供较高可见度。上行核心变量为 CLPS 2.0 中标份额 ≥20% 与 FY27 毛利率突破 30%;下行风险为 Alpha/Eclipse 发射失败或政府预算延后导致 FCF 持续 -$250M 并触发股权稀释。定价锚定 FY27E EV/Sales 13x 中性倍数,18 个月目标价 $48,与当前 $49.50 基本持平,反映高估值已透支基准情景兑现。
| 分部 | Q1 2026 ($M) | Q4 2025 ($M) | Q3 2025 ($M) | Q2 2025 ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spacecraft Solutions | 67.6 | 50.0 | 21.4 | 9.2 |
| Launch | 13.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 6.3 |
| Total Revenue | 80.9 | 57.7 | 30.8 | 15.5 |
| Spacecraft YoY | +33% | n/a | +134% | -49% |
| Launch YoY | +156% | n/a | -29% | +113% |
数据来源: 10-Q Q1 2026; Q4 2025 Call; 10-Q Q3 2025; 10-Q Q2 2025。注: Q4 2025 数据来自 Earnings Call Prepared Metrics，未发布正式 10-Q。
| Metric | FY2025 | H1 2025 | TTM (as of Q1 '26) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 159.9 | 71.4 | 185.6 | FY25 +163% YoY (Q4 '25 Call) |
| Gross Margin (%) | n/a | n/a | 19.2 | TTM only; FY25 GM not disclosed |
| Operating Margin (%) | n/a | n/a | -158.6 | TTM reflects heavy R&D/SG&A ramp |
| Net Income ($M) | n/a | -123.9 | -335.0 | TTM sum of last 4Q NI |
| EPS (Diluted) | n/a | n/a | -2.32 | TTM derived from quarterly EPS |
| FCF ($M) | n/a | -133.8 | -211.0 | Sum of Q2-Q1 OCF-CapEx |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 155-157 (Q4 est) | n/a | 160.1 | Q1 '26 end count (Q1 '26 Call) |
| Metric | Q1 '26 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 80.9 | 57.7 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 55.9 | n/a |
| Revenue YoY (%) | +45% | n/a | +38% | -26% | n/a | n/a |
| Gross Margin (%) | 21.6% | 27.7% | 27.6% | 25.7% | 4.0% | n/a |
| Operating Loss ($M) | -95.7 | n/a | -62.2 | -54.4 | n/a | n/a |
| Net Income ($M) | -96.7 | -41.0 | -133.4 | -63.8 | -60.1 | -53.0 |
| EPS (Diluted) | -0.61 | -0.26 | -0.95 | -0.56 | -0.50 | -0.40 |
| FCF ($M) | -78.9 | -79.3 | -62.0 | -37.3 | -57.0 | n/a |
数据来源: 10-Q Q1 2026; Q4 2025 Call; 10-Q Q3 2025; 10-Q Q2 2025; 2-Year Quarterly History。注: Q4 '24 Revenue/GM 缺失；Q4 '25 NI/EPS 来自 2-Year History Table。
| Segment | Q1 '26 ($M) | Q4 '25 ($M) | Q3 '25 ($M) | Q2 '25 ($M) | Q1 '25 ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spacecraft Solutions | 67.6 | 50.0 | 21.4 | 9.2 | 50.8* |
| Launch | 13.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 5.2* |
| Total | 80.9 | 57.7 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 56.0* |
数据来源: 10-Q Q1 2026; Q4 2025 Call; 10-Q Q3/Q2 2025。*Q1 '25 分部数据由 Total - Launch/Spacecraft 推算或引用同比基数，原文未直接列示 Q1 '25 分部绝对值，此处 Launch $5.2M 由 $13.3M / (1+156%) 反推，Spacecraft $50.8M 由 $67.6M / (1+33%) 反推，仅供趋势参考。
"Firefly Aerospace Inc. is not just participating in the space economy, we are shaping it." — CEO, Q1 2026 Call "We are reiterating our outlook of $420 million to $450 million, consistent with what we gave on the March call." — CFO, Q1 2026 Call "The Moon is now a permanent destination... initial phases represent a $20 billion opportunity over seven years." — CEO, Q1 2026 Call "SciTech’s FORGE program is operational since September, processing over 1,000 missile messages for national defense." — CEO, Q4 2025 Call Q&A "Block 2 upgrades derisked on Flight 7: in-house avionics, batteries, automated flight termination system all nominal." — Kristine Liwag, Q4 2025 Call Q&A "80% of midpoint 2026 revenue already booked; NASA lander acceleration to monthly cadence (2027) not included in guidance." — Kristine Liwag, Q4 2025 Call Q&A "Alpha is differentiated as the only operational 1-ton-to-orbit rocket." — CEO, Q2 2025 Call "We generated revenue of $15.5 million [in Q2]... currently expect revenue will be in a range of $133 million to $145 million [FY25]." — CFO, Q2 2025 Call
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 460 | 780 | 1,200 |
| YoY (%) | +188% | +70% | +54% |
| Gross Margin | 26% | 30% | 33% |
| EBITDA ($M) | -120 | 40 | 220 |
| FCF ($M) | -200 | -50 | 120 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 164 | 168 | 172 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$78–$85,中值 $82
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 435 | 620 | 850 |
| YoY (%) | +172% | +43% | +37% |
| Gross Margin | 24% | 27% | 29% |
| EBITDA ($M) | -180 | -30 | 80 |
| FCF ($M) | -260 | -130 | -20 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 164 | 168 | 172 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$46–$52,中值 $49
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 360 | 430 | 520 |
| YoY (%) | +125% | +19% | +21% |
| Gross Margin | 18% | 20% | 22% |
| EBITDA ($M) | -240 | -200 | -140 |
| FCF ($M) | -300 | -250 | -180 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 164 | 180 | 195 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$16–$19,中值 $17
| 指标 | 当前值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | -23.59 | TTM Fundamentals |
| Forward PE | n/a | TTM Fundamentals |
| EV/EBITDA | -29.73 | TTM Fundamentals |
| P/S (TTM) | 42.90 | TTM Fundamentals |
| KPI | 频率 | 警戒值 | 为何重要 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha 发射成功率 | 季度 | <100% | 触发 Bear 情景收入断档与估值倍数压缩 |
| 综合毛利率 | 季度 | <22% | 偏离 Base 24% 路径,暗示成本吸收不及预期 |
| Backlog 净增量 | 季度 | <$50M/qtr | 验证 H2 新签/里程碑能否填补 FY26 剩余 20% 缺口 |
| FCF Burn Rate | 季度 | >-$75M/qtr | 逼近流动性安全垫,增加股权融资稀释风险 |
| SBC 稀释率 | 季度 | >3%/qtr | 超出指引侵蚀每股价值,压制估值上限 |
| CLPS 2.0 进度 | 事件 | H2'26 未落地 | 核心 Bull 催化剂失效,长期 TAM 叙事受损 |
| SciTec 收入增速 | 季度 | <20% YoY | 整合失败信号,防务软件协同效应证伪 |
| 权证负债 FV 变动 | 季度 | >$10M 波动 | 扭曲 GAAP 净利,干扰基本面趋势判断 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 关注点 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q2 | Alpha Flight 8 | Block 2 配置验证;发射节奏能否维持 |
| 2026-H2 | CLPS 2.0 授标 | Firefly 中标份额;单价与交付时间表 |
| 2026-Q3 | Q2 Earnings | 毛利率趋势;SciTec 并表后 OpEx 杠杆 |
| 2026-Q4 | Blue Ghost M2 | 月面着陆里程碑;NASA 后续任务信心 |
| 2027-Q1 | Eclipse 首飞 | 中型运载能力验证;Northrop 合作深化 |
| 2027-H1 | FY27 Guidance | 官方指引发布;消除 FY27+ 预测盲区 |
| TBD | 瑞典发射场启用 | 国际市场准入;ITAR 限制规避效果 |
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 18m IRR | 3y IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 悲观 | 0.30 | $17 | -43% | -30% |
| 中性 | 0.45 | $49 | -1% | 0% |
| 乐观 | 0.25 | $82 | 44% | 18% |
| 加权 | 1.00 | $48 | -2% | -1% |
Thesis:Firefly 是少数同时拥有端到端发射、月面着陆与 AI 防务软件能力的公开市场标的,SciTec 收购使其切入 Golden Dome 与 CLPS 2.0 两条数十亿美元政府赛道,FY26 指引 80% 已锁定提供较高可见度。上行核心变量为 CLPS 2.0 中标份额 ≥20% 与 FY27 毛利率突破 30%;下行风险为 Alpha/Eclipse 发射失败或政府预算延后导致 FCF 持续 -$250M 并触发股权稀释。定价锚定 FY27E EV/Sales 13x 中性倍数,18 个月目标价 $48,与当前 $49.50 基本持平,反映高估值已透支基准情景兑现。
Confidence: low(上市不足 1 年、缺乏历史倍数与同业可比数据,FY27+ 无官方指引,单次发射事件即可大幅改变情景路径)