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10-Q2025-11-05· merged:deepseek-v4-flash

HOG · Harley-Davidson, Inc.

0000793952-25-000188

SEC filing

Summary

HDFS Transaction benefits drove net income surge, while HDMC faced tariff headwinds and LiveWire narrowed losses on cost cuts.

Key takeaways

Full analysis

Period Performance

Period Performance

For the third quarter of 2025, Harley-Davidson reported net income attributable to the company of $377.4 million, or $3.10 per diluted share, compared to $119.0 million, or $0.91 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter—a 217% increase in net income. Operating income surged 348.7% to $474.8 million from $105.8 million, largely due to the HDFS Transaction. Consolidated revenue is not a single line item, but segment revenues totaled approximately $1.34 billion, up from $1.16 billion in Q3 2024, driven by a 32.7% increase in HDMC motorcycle shipments (36,524 units vs. 27,520), partially offset by lower HDFS interest income. HDMC gross profit improved 7.3% to $283.1 million, but gross margin contracted due to higher costs per unit.

Segment Dynamics

HDMC generated operating income of $54.1 million, down 1.8% YoY, despite a 22.5% revenue increase. Higher manufacturing and tariff costs ($35.3 million in cost of goods sold) and unfavorable leverage from lower production in the preceding quarter more than offset shipment volume gains and favorable price/mix. Operating margin dropped 130 basis points to 5.0%. LiveWire narrowed its operating loss by 30.3% to $18.2 million, as cost reduction actions cut selling, administrative, and engineering expenses by $9.0 million (36.1%) despite only modest revenue growth. HDFS operating income skyrocketed to $438.8 million from $76.7 million, driven by $301 million in benefits from the release of credit loss allowances on held-for-sale receivables and a $27 million gain on sale of securitization beneficial interests. Excluding these non-recurring gains, HDFS underlying profitability declined due to lower interest income and higher operating expenses.

Forward View

Management provided several key expectations for 2025. HDFS segment operating income is expected to be $525 million to $550 million, including the Q3 transaction benefits. LiveWire is now expected to post an operating loss of $72 million to $77 million (wider than prior guidance of $59–$69 million). Full-year capital investments were revised down to $175 million–$200 million. The company reiterated its plan to reduce year-end dealer inventory by approximately 10% and to achieve $100 million in annual productivity savings in 2025 and 2026. On capital allocation, Harley-Davidson expects to repurchase approximately $1 billion of shares from Q3 2024 through 2026, including a $200 million ASR program to commence in Q4 2025. The HDFS Transaction will also generate about $1 billion in cash, which will be used to repay a $450 million term loan and for share repurchases. Tariff exposure remains a risk, with full-year 2025 impact estimated at $55–$75 million.

Notes & Operating Detail

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.775B as of September 30, 2025, up from $1.590B at year-end 2024 but down from $2.244B a year earlier. Restricted cash was $51.5M. Total debt (including short-term and current portion) was $5.162B, down from $6.960B at year-end 2024, primarily due to the HDFS Transaction deconsolidating $1.67B of asset-backed securitization debt. Shareholders' equity (attributable to Harley-Davidson, Inc.) was $3.572B, up from $3.166B at year-end 2024. Inventory declined to $512.2M from $745.8M at year-end 2024.

Commitments & Contractual Obligations

No purchase commitments or contractual obligations table was disclosed in the Notes. The filing references a potential brake hose recall cost estimate of $140M to $450M but states no liability has been accrued.

Capital Allocation (buybacks, dividends, debt, capex)

Year-to-date 2025, the company repurchased $193.2M of common stock (vs. $359.8M in 2024) and paid $66.3M in dividends ($0.54 per share, up 4.3% from $0.5175). A new $200M accelerated share repurchase program was announced on November 4, 2025. Net debt cash flow was negative $(547.7M), including $647.1M of medium-term note issuances, a $448.0M term loan, and $497.8M in securitization debt proceeds, offset by $700.0M in medium-term note repayments, $450.0M in senior note repayments, and $718.0M in securitization debt repayments. Capital expenditures were $102.1M (2.6% of sales), down from $140.4M in 2024.

Segment / Geographic Mix (if disclosed at note level)

The company operates in three segments. HDMC revenue was $1.074B (+22.5% YoY) with operating income of $54.1M (5.0% margin). LiveWire revenue was $5.6M (+15.7%) with an operating loss of $(18.2M). HDFS revenue was $261.2M (-3.1%) but operating income surged to $438.8M (168% margin) due to a $(301.5M) provision benefit from the release of the allowance for credit losses on $4.08B of receivables reclassified to held for sale. Segment assets: HDMC $3.545B, LiveWire $89.2M, HDFS $6.932B.

Cash Flow Quality

Cash Flow Quality

Operating cash flow of $416.9M was significantly lower than net income of $618.0M (calculated from equity statements), indicating substantial working capital outflows, likely tied to finance receivable activity. Capex of $102.1M represents a capex intensity of 24.5% relative to CFO, down from 15.1% in the prior period. The investing segment showed a net inflow of $205.5M, driven by heavy origination ($2,287.4M) and collection ($2,459.4M) of finance receivables, as well as securitization proceeds. Financing activities used $547.7M, including $700.0M in medium-term note repayments offset by $647.1M in issuances, and $450.0M in senior note repayments offset by $448.0M in term loan proceeds. Dividends and share repurchases totaled $259.5M, which was fully covered by CFO less capex of $314.8M. The company maintained a strong cash position, ending with $1,826.6M in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, up $85.7M from the beginning of the period. Overall, while CFO declined, the company’s capital allocation remains disciplined and well-supported by core operations.