Research Reports

Q3 2025 group revenues EUR 398 million, up 4% organic (prepared).
DTC channel up 9% in Q3, driven by all three brands (prepared).
9-month group revenues EUR 1.3 billion (prepared).
ZEGNA brand Q3 revenues EUR 249 million, +6% growth, with DTC up 7%; ZEGNA DTC led by double-digit growth in EMEA and Americas (prepared).
Thom Browne Q3 revenues EUR 48 million, DTC up 10% sequentially; wholesale down 37% in Q3 (prepared).
TOM FORD FASHION Q3 revenues EUR 66 million, +4% organic; DTC up 16%, driven by Fall/Winter ’25 collection (prepared).
Textile flat in Q3; other revenues (finished product for third-party brands) up 12% (prepared).
By region: EMEA +3% in Q3 (36% of 9-month revenue); Americas +13% (29% of 9-month revenue); Greater China –7% (23% of 9-month revenue); rest of APAC +3% (12% of 9-month revenue) (prepared).
DTC channel accounted for 82% of group revenues in first 9 months (prepared).
ZEGNA closed 4 stores in Q3, mainly in Greater China (prepared); Thom Browne opened 4 DOS, including concession at Selfridges Women London and Kyoto Isetan (prepared).
ZEGNA wholesale guidance: down mid-teens for full year; TOM FORD FASHION wholesale guidance: negative in region of 10% for full year (prepared).
Currency headwind in Q3 estimated at 3–4 points; expected to be 4%–5% in Q4 (CFO).
China remains volatile, but expected to settle into balanced growth rates in coming years (CFO).

No official quantitative revenue or earnings guidance provided for next quarter or full-year 2025. Only directional guidance for wholesale: ZEGNA wholesale down mid-teens; TOM FORD FASHION wholesale negative ~10% (prepared).

“The volatility of consumer demand remains a defining factor, particularly in certain regions, starting with China, which we expect to remain volatile in the coming months.” (CFO)
“We see it [China] settling into a new normal, which we expect to lead into balanced growth rates in the coming years.” (CFO)
“We know how important it is to stay sharply focused on the key priorities we have defined for each of the 3 brands and to deliver on them.” (CFO)
“We are absolutely encouraged by the clients' positive feedback on the collection [TOM FORD FASHION Winter '25].” (IR)
“Rooted in heritage yet forward-looking, the Torino style bridges the path and the future. This campaign reaffirmed ZEGNA's role in shaping contemporary style.” (CFO)

Metric	Value	Speaker/Context
Group Q3 revenues	EUR 398 million	Prepared remarks
Group Q3 organic growth	+4%	Prepared remarks
DTC channel Q3 growth	+9%	Prepared remarks
ZEGNA Q3 revenues	EUR 249 million	Prepared remarks
ZEGNA Q3 growth	+6%	Prepared remarks
ZEGNA DTC Q3 growth	+7%	Prepared remarks
Thom Browne Q3 revenues	EUR 48 million	Prepared remarks
Thom Browne DTC Q3 growth	+10%	Prepared remarks
TOM FORD FASHION Q3 revenues	EUR 66 million	Prepared remarks
TOM FORD FASHION Q3 organic growth	+4%	Prepared remarks
TOM FORD FASHION DTC Q3 growth	+16%	Prepared remarks
EMEA Q3 growth	+3%	Prepared remarks
Americas Q3 growth	+13%	Prepared remarks
Greater China Q3 growth	–7%	Prepared remarks
Rest of APAC Q3 growth	+3%	Prepared remarks
DTC share of 9-month revenues	82%	Prepared remarks
Currency headwind Q3	3–4 points	CFO
Expected currency headwind Q4	4%–5%	CFO

Topic: 当前交易趋势、中国消费分层及2026年外汇对利润率的影响
Key points:
- Q4 开局仅几周，趋势与 Q3 “没有显著不同”；但去年同期 Q4 DTC 为高个位数有机增长，基数较高。
- 中国高端客户（Vellus Aureum、Aureus 及高端套装）表现良好；尚未看到大众消费（更实惠需求）的稳定回暖信号。
- 二线城市（深圳、成都、广州）表现略好于北京、上海；香港趋势有所改善。
- 外汇对冲已较好覆盖 2025 秋冬及 2026 春夏；2026 秋冬定价策略将根据外汇情况决定。
Mgmt stance: 谨慎 — 强调经营环境波动，未来将通过收紧开店与资本支出、优化门店网络来应对。

Topic: 跨区域消费环境、批发渠道调整进展及 TOM FORD 品牌表现
Key points:
- Q3 美国与欧洲集群持续实现双位数增长；大中华区略改善至中个位数下滑。
- 批发调整主要已执行：Thom Browne 批发全年下滑 35%，ZEGNA 下滑中十几个百分点，TOM FORD 下滑约 10%。
- TOM FORD DTC 在 Q3 增长 16%，包含明显同店增长成分（不仅靠新店贡献）；新创意总监首个系列（8 月底到店）在美欧获得积极反响。
Mgmt stance: 谨慎偏乐观 — DTC 增长含实质同店改善（培训、品类规划）；批发下滑明年将大幅减弱；TOM FORD 整合初显成效。

Topic: ZEGNA DTC 驱动力及外汇/关税成本对冲机制
Key points:
- Q3 ZEGNA DTC 有机增长 7.4%，几乎全部来自同店：转化率提升（CRM 精准邀约）与平均单价上涨（Vellus Aureum、个性化、皮具等）抵消了人流量下滑。
- 门店面积目前非主要驱动力；美国仍有扩张机会（底特律、圣地亚哥、斯科茨代尔），中国将整合。
- 外汇对冲机制：提前数月锁定价格表，2026 春夏已全部覆盖且汇率有利；9 月已针对关税进行提价，客户反应正面。
Mgmt stance: 乐观 — 品牌通过产品高端化与 CRM 驱动全价销售，成功对冲外部压力；定价策略已验证有效。

Topic: Q4 DTC 增速展望、中国消费者表现及 ZEGNA 分部利润率指引
Key points:
- Q4 趋势与 Q3 基本一致，但去年同期基数高；整体市场一致预期（公司官网披露的全年营收预测）目前看“合理”。
- 中国消费者集群：整体高个位数下滑；海外中国消费者（占比较小）下滑幅度更大。
- ZEGNA 分部全年利润率：9 月指引为 13%–14%；Q3 同店增长符合公司内部预期，并非意外利好。
Mgmt stance: 中性偏谨慎 — 确认利润率指引不变（未因 Q3 同店增长而上调），并提示 Q4

Topic: ZEGNA price mix, returning customers, TOM FORD Q4 outlook, and fashion innovation
Key points:
- ZEGNA comp growth is primarily driven by price mix (like-for-like price increases + mix elevation of collection content).
- Returning new clients show good traction; spending clusters above €25,000 are growing well; lower-spending clients are returning for second triple stitch or broader total look.
- TOM FORD Q3 achieved solid double-digit growth partly from comp; Q4 last year had a denser performance base, creating a comparison effect.
- TOM FORD opportunities: increasing U.S. store presence (stores opening next year), a Paris store in development, and focus on women’s daywear, shoes, and handbags.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – acknowledges Q4 base effect for TOM FORD but sees healthy run rate; innovation must be coherent with brand DNA, not radical change.

Topic: Haider collection impact quantification, TOM FORD product rollout pace, full-year EBIT and gross margin consensus
Key points:
- Haider’s new collection contributed to Q3 acceleration, but impact is hard to quantify; the winter collection arrived mid-quarter, and part of the quarter included pre-Haider collections.
- TOM FORD spring product rollout: first drop (non-show collection) in mid-November, second drop in January.
- Full-year EBIT consensus is “pretty reasonable,” subject to performance in the remaining two months.
- Gross margin consensus around 67% is directionally consistent; management sees potential upside but will confirm at year-end.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – consensus appears reasonable but dependent on upcoming months; no specific guidance on gross margin upside.