ZGN earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• H1 2025 总收入 9.28 亿欧元，有机同比下降 2%；DTC 渠道有机增长 +6%（IR）。
• 毛利率 67.5%，同比提升 110 个基点，主要因 DTC 占集团品牌收入比重升至 82%（去年同期 76%）（IR）。
• 调整后 EBIT 为 6 900 万欧元，利润率 7.4%，同比下滑 100 个基点；下半年预计高于上半年（IR, CFO）。
• 分部门：Zegna 品牌调整后 EBIT 9 400 万欧元，利润率 14.3%（同比 +150 基点）；Thom Browne 调整后 EBIT 400 万欧元（去年同期 2 000 万）；Tom Ford Fashion 亏损 1 900 万欧元（去年同期亏损 1 200 万）（IR）。
• 净利润 4 790 万欧元，同比增长 53%，得益于金融收入及汇兑收益改善；有效税率约 30%（预期年末 28%–30%）（IR）。
• 资本支出 5 400 万欧元，占收入 6%，全年预期维持 6%–7%（2/3 用于门店网络建设，其余用于生产及 IT 投资）（IR, CFO）。
• 贸易营运资本 4.42 亿欧元，低于去年同期的 4.67 亿欧元，受库存管理优化及应收款减少推动（IR）。
• 自由现金流净流出 2 300 万欧元（去年同期净流出 700 万），因经营现金流下降（IR）。
• 净债务 9 200 万欧元，与 2024 年末持平（IR）。
• 官方指引：下半年调整后 EBIT 将高于上半年；全年资本支出占收入约 6%–7%（IR, CFO）。区域层面，欧洲、中东和美洲维持强劲，大中华区仍具挑战但近期基数效应下略有改善（CFO）。

管理层引述

• (IR) “我们确认，2025 年下半年调整后 EBIT 将高于上半年。”
• (CFO) “Zegna 秋冬 25 营销活动聚焦 Torino 西装，搭配 Vetta 鞋履，店内预售及预订单已获初步积极反馈。”
• (CFO) “很高兴宣布在迈阿密设计区新店开业，并在上海 Plaza 66 开设第三家 [indiscernible] 预约店。”
• (CFO) “Haider Ackermann 操刀的首个 Tom Ford 广告大片反响极佳；8 月底铺货后首批门店反馈积极。”
• (CFO) “进入 9 月，三大品牌均感受到良好能量，但必须保持谨慎和警惕——初步迹象尚未形成稳定趋势。”

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (1-5 of 5)

Q1 — Anthony Charchafji (BNP)

• Topic: Gross margin bridge and drivers
• Key points:
  • Gross profit margin continued upward direction since H1 2024, +110 bps.
  • DTC revenues reached 88% vs 86% last year; within DTC, sell-through at full price is a key driver, especially for Zegna brand.
  • Personalization journey also supports margin by transferring quality/service into price.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — management sees margin improvement as a synthetic indicator of ability to stay full price and be recognized for quality.

Q2 — Paola Durante (on behalf of Anthony)

• Topic: H2 revenue and adjusted EBIT guidance vs consensus
• Key points:
  • Confirmed low single-digit organic revenue growth for the full year; currency assumptions (USD-euro, renminbi-euro) have changed since initial guidance.
  • Consensus revenue of EUR 1.923 billion is seen as correctly reflecting currency changes on an organic basis.
  • Consensus adjusted EBIT of EUR 173 million is considered realistic.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — management endorses current consensus as realistic, acknowledging currency headwinds but not providing upside.

Q3 — Thomas Nass (on for Oliver)

• Topic: Zegna segment margin trajectory and Thom Browne margin outlook
• Key points:
  • Zegna segment margin for 2025 expected between 13% and 14%; long-term target of 15% remains the first step, not for this year.
  • Thom Browne wholesale declined 52% in H1; H2 wholesale decline expected to reduce to ~-20%.
  • Thom Browne’s new business leader (Sam Lobban) is driving a DTC-centric approach; goal is to return Thom Browne to double-digit EBIT.
• Mgmt stance: Cautious on Zegna short-term (investments cap margin), bullish on long-term potential; cautious on Thom Browne (still restructuring, but path to double-digit EBIT is clear).

Q4 — Chris Huang

• Topic: China consumer trends and Zegna segment margin H2 contraction
• Key points:
  • China: early signs of improvement, but management will provide detailed comments at Q3 revenue call (October); current trend is still declining but less than double-digit (single-digit area).
  • Zegna segment margin for 2025 guided to 13%–14%; H2 will see year-over-year contraction due to planned investments (e.g., Art Basel event in Miami in December) and 4 months of uncertainty.
  • Full-year group marketing spend confirmed at ~6% of sales.
• Mgmt stance: Cautious on H2 margin — management prefers to keep strategic investments rather than squeeze short-term EBIT; neutral on China — waiting for more data before drawing conclusions.

Q5 — Louise Singlehurst

• Topic: Pricing strategy and H2 risk outlook
• Key points:
  • Pricing: systematic low single-digit price increases to offset cost/currency dynamics; for Fall/Winter 2025, incremental U.S. tariffs were reflected in prices (live since August), with no substantial consumer pushback.
  • U.S. momentum remains solid across Zegna, Tom Ford, and Thom Browne (latter smaller but positive).
  • H2 risk: China remains the main risk due to volatile environment; management is planning for a “new normal” in China through 2026, not banking on a rebound.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish on U.S. pricing and demand; cautious on China — planning for no rebound, but ready to capitalize if improvement occurs.