EC earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• Production: Average 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day over 9 months, near top of annual guidance range (740,000–750,000) (CEO). Domestic crude production 519,000 barrels per day, driven by Caño Sur and CPO-09 adding 24,000 barrels per day vs. prior year (Rafael Guzmán). International production supported by Permian net production of 106,000 barrels per day before royalties (14% of total) (Rafael Guzmán).
• Transportation: Average throughput 1,098,000 barrels per day as of September; Q3 2025 throughput 1,118,000 barrels per day (+1% vs. Q3 2024, +3% vs. Q2 2025) (CEO, Rafael Guzmán).
• Refining: Consolidated throughput ~429,000 barrels per day in Q3 (second highest quarterly level in history); 9-month average 413,000 barrels per day (CEO, Rafael Guzmán). Integrated gross refining margin Jan–Sep grew 22% vs. 2024 (Rafael Guzmán).
• EBITDA: Q3 2025 EBITDA COP 12.3 trillion, margin 41% (CFO). Cumulative 9-month EBITDA COP 36.7 trillion (CFO). Exploration & Production segment contributed 53% of EBITDA; Transportation, Transmission & Toll Roads 42%; Refining 5% (CFO).
• Net Income: Q3 2025 net income COP 2.6 trillion, +42% vs. previous quarter (CEO, CFO).
• CapEx: Year-to-date $4.179 billion, 72% of annual plan (CFO). Distribution: 62% Hydrocarbons, 13% Energies for Transition, 25% Transmission & Toll Roads (CFO). Growth investments 75% of total (CFO).
• Efficiency Program: Achieved COP 4.1 trillion in efficiencies year-to-date, 40% above target (CFO). Lifting cost $11.8 per barrel, $0.44 lower than 2024 (Rafael Guzmán). Total unit cost $45.5 per barrel, reduction of $1.8 vs. prior year (Rafael Guzmán).
• Cash & Debt: Cash position COP 14.1 trillion as of September, +COP 1 trillion vs. prior quarter (CFO). Gross debt-to-EBITDA 2.4x; excluding ISA debt and acquisition debt, 1.7x (CFO). Fitch Ratings reaffirmed global credit rating at BB+, stand-alone credit profile at BBB- (CFO).
• Renewable Energy: Renewable self-generation capacity 254 megawatts (CEO, Bayron Triana). La Iguana Solar Farm (26 MW) commissioned at Barrancabermeja refinery (CEO, Bayron Triana). Cumulative savings from renewables COP 42 billion year-to-date (Bayron Triana).
• Exploration: 10 exploratory wells drilled (8 funded by Ecopetrol Group, 2 by partners), 3 in progress (CEO, Rafael Guzmán). Commerciality declared for Toritos and Saltador discoveries in Llanos 123 block (Rafael Guzmán). Sirius field natural gas commercialization announced with volumes up to 249 million cubic feet per day, estimated production start 2030 (Bayron Triana).
• FEPC: Fuel price stabilization fund accumulations in Q2 and Q3 below COP 1 trillion; no longer material impact on working capital (CFO).
• Tax Credits: Jan–Sep accumulated tax credits COP 12.2 trillion; COP 5.2 trillion offset against tax obligations (CFO).

Official Guidance

• 2025 Production Guidance: 740,000–750,000 barrels per day (CEO, Rafael Guzmán). 9-month average 751,000 barrels per day near top of range (CEO).
• 2026 Outlook: Focus on lifting cost below $12 per barrel; strict capital discipline; efficiency initiatives to maximize value (CFO). 2026 financial plan to be announced shortly (CEO).
• CapEx Flexibility: Target $500 million in CapEx flexibility measures; 77% progress achieved (CFO).

Mgmt Quotes

• "Over the last 9 months, we have been focusing our efforts on reinforcing our core business operation, maintaining a strict financial discipline, and advising profitable on strategic projects." (CEO)
• "The efficiency program has strengthened its role as a key driver of value creation in the Hydrocarbons business line." (Rafael Guzmán)
• "This third quarter reaffirms our resilience and discipline in a challenging environment, marked by a nearly 15% decline in Brent prices year-to-date." (CFO)
• "Our strategic focus is not only on warranting energy availability, but also on doing so in a cost-effective and sustainable manner." (Bayron Triana)
• "The results delivered this quarter put us in a strong position to meet our operational and financial objectives for 2025." (CEO)

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (1-5 of 6)

Q1 — Rodolfo García Paredes

• Topic: Corporate governance and risk mitigation for potential sanctions
• Key points:
  • Ecopetrol has a sound and robust corporate governance and compliance system.
  • Ongoing monitoring of the setting, with identification of different scenarios and mitigations to ensure operation and norm compliance.
  • For any specific event, analysis includes the program’s motivation, scope, and measures.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — describes existing frameworks and scenario analysis without expressing optimism or concern.

Q2 — Alfonso Camilo Munoz

• Topic: Mitigation plan for capital market access and financial obligations
• Key points:
  • Aligned with scenario analysis, a mitigation plan is foreseen depending on program magnitude and scope of eventual sanctions.
  • Specific measures are included to reduce or eliminate risk related to access to capital markets.
  • Strict compliance with all financial obligations is maintained.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — states existence of a plan and commitment to obligations, no explicit bullish or cautious tone.

Q3 — Rafael Guzmán

• Topic: Sirius project timeline and government collaboration
• Key points:
  • Operator is Petrobras, leading all development activities; Ecopetrol provides assistance and close follow-up.
  • Ongoing desk with ACP with a very specific timetable.
  • Plan includes ending flow consultations by July 2026, then beginning consultations for connection to Ballena station in La Guajira.
  • Activities are established to meet the timetable and gas delivery as mentioned.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — factual update on timeline and collaboration, no forward-looking optimism or caution.

Q4 — Ricardo Andres Sandoval Carrera

• Topic: DIAN embargo risk and bond default clauses
• Key points:
  • DIAN (Tax Authority of Colombia) officially stated it discards any embargo in this controversy for Ecopetrol.
  • Ecopetrol and Reficar have taken measures (tutelas, anticipated intervention to control agencies) to avoid any measure that could affect normal operation.
  • Ecopetrol has been meeting all financial obligations timely and has projected cash flow to serve contingencies.
  • Any event’s impact depends on the amount determined; protections and decisions will be made to ensure timely compliance with financial market obligations.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — emphasizes DIAN’s statement and existing protections, but acknowledges contingency planning based on potential amount.

Q5 — Felipe Lopez

• Topic: Refinery performance improvement drivers
• Key points:
  • Focused on 5 elements: operating availability, utilization factor, sustained increase of loads of each refinery, maximization of valuable products, assurance of decrease of costs.
  • Goal for rest of 2025 and 2026 is to assure good yields in a scenario of good differentials (like second semester 2025 and first semester 2026).
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — describes operational levers and targets without explicit bullish or cautious language.

Q&A Batch (6-6 of 6)

Q6 — Nicolas Barros

• Topic: Permian生产预期、资本配置、利润率和股息政策
• Key points:
  • Permian明年产量预计接近今年规划的约90,000桶/日，但取决于与Oxy的JV或JOA安排（上半年后决定）。
  • 资本配置优先高盈利资产，同时引入合作伙伴为低优先级资产注资，例如已与Parex在Putumayo达成COP 350 million投资协议，年内将完成另一项类似谈判。
  • 利润率维持靠三因素：① 提升成本2025年出现拐点，尽管汇率贬值等外部压力；② 基础设施利用率最大化（如原油管线逆向转为进口、炼厂开工率提升）；③ 上游组合优化。
  • 股息政策为