Germline assay (RARE) is small in volume but high ASP (~$3,000); MRD grew 500% YoY but only 6,500 tests.
Hereditary business (Ambry) expects to return to mid-teens growth in back half of year, lapping prior 40% growth periods.
xG grew 50% YoY in Q1; RARE had a slower first half due to later market entry vs. GeneDx.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — back-half hereditary growth looks strong as RARE volume picks up and ASP accretive.
Q7 — Mark Schappel
Topic: Algorithm attach rate (40%) on Solid Tumor assays and expansion drivers
Key points:
Algorithms include Homologous Recombination Deficiency, Tumor Origin (for ~5% of cancer patients with unknown primary), and immune profile score refining TMB.
Attach rate driven by physician reliance on technology for decision-making; no specific product breakdown given.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — trend of algorithm adoption will continue across all major oncology assays (hereditary, MRD, therapy selection).
Q8 — Casey Woodring
Topic: Adjusted EBITDA phasing to $65M in 2025 and MRD volume ramp
Key points:
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was -$3M; Q1 YoY improvement ~$13M+; similar Q2 improvement expected; back-half margins expand.
MRD volumes growing robustly but metered due to reimbursement; 97% of tests are tumor-informed (Personalis).
Full sales force (hundreds) not yet deployed on MRD; aggressive rollout would increase Personalis cash burn.
Mgmt stance: Neutral-cautious on MRD — reimbursement improvement needed before unleashing full sales force; EBITDA phasing on track.
Q9 — Daniel Arias
Topic: 25% top-line growth over 3 years vs. ASP potential (30% higher) and volume implications
Key points:
Guidance for ~$1.6B in 2025; 25% growth over 3 years implies ~$2B–$3B range.
ASP lift and volume lift both expected; no specific volume assumption tied to reimbursement upside.
Business diversified across hereditary, therapy selection, MRD, RARE, and data/applications.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — durable business with multiple growth levers; comfortable sustaining 25% growth regardless of short-term headwinds.