Research Reports

Official guidance

Mgmt quotes

“Q3 was a great quarter all around.” (CEO)
“Our genomic growth was across the board.” (CEO)
“This is on top of the multi-hundred million dollar foundation model deal we struck earlier this year.” (CEO)
“The combination of growth in Genomics and growth in our data business allowed us to generate positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time this quarter.” (CEO)

Topic: Genomics volume growth drivers (Oncology)
Key points:
- Sales force efficiency improved vs. a year ago; prior MRD portfolio changes caused "havoc" that took several quarters to resolve.
- Technology delivering "highly contextualized comprehensive results" gaining physician adoption.
- General tailwind: more biomarkers identified, driving healthy testing volumes.
- Tempus not benefiting from one-time shifts (e.g., solid-to-liquid) because it already had a comprehensive portfolio for years.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — unit growth described as "really healthy and durable," not artificially propped up.

Topic: MRD go-to-market strategy and growth expectations
Key points:
- Company targets ~25% unit growth for next 3 years (called out in letter); does not want "40% this quarter then 20% next quarter."
- MRD reimbursement will be dialed up "every quarter in a more aggressive manner," not jammed in artificially.
- Portfolio includes tumor-naive and tumor-informed MRD assays (CRC, breast, lung, IO); new studies with a more sensitive tumor-naive assay underway.
- Sales force subset already trained in MRD; no unnatural investments planned.
Mgmt stance: Neutral-to-bullish — MRD is a tailwind to sustain 25% growth, but execution will be measured, not aggressive.

Topic: New data licensing contracts ($150M+ bookings disclosure)
Key points:
- $150M in data licensing bookings disclosed this quarter; total contract value "well north of" $350M from just two data points (including prior AZ/Pathos deal).
- Bookings are multiyear; do not translate directly into next-quarter revenue.
- Four deals called out: some for analytics software (Lens), some for data libraries.
- Data business differentiation cited: unique data asset, proprietary software/tools; growth vs. larger, older competitors.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — data business "pulling further apart" from peers; no sign of slowing; annual backlog disclosure will show "great number."

Topic: Liquid biopsy trends (xF) and FDA/ADLT reimbursement path
Key points:
- No "seismic shift" from solid to liquid; both solid and liquid had "really good growth."
- xF FDA submission planned by end of 2025; full PMA for xR to follow.
- xT CDx: ~30% of volume migrated to FDA-approved/ADLT version by Q3 end; majority to move in 2026.
- Total average reimbursement in Q3: $1,600 (up ~$20 sequentially), still "well below parity with peers."
Mgmt stance: Bullish on long-term — ADLT status typically provides upside; regulatory filings will help close reimbursement gap.

Topic: Ambry (Hereditary) growth mix, market growth, and ASPs
Key points:
- ~50% of Ambry's gain from share gains (similar to last quarter); share gains expected to moderate in Q4.
- Long-term Hereditary growth expected low-to-mid 20s; Q4 could see high 20s/low 30s but not sustainable.
- Industry growth likely low double digits (competitor reported low double-digit growth).
- ASPs "pretty consistent" over last few quarters, down slightly year-over-year due to one large payer renegotiation.
- Rare disease business (higher ASP) still small but scaling; company aims to become "very big player" in rare space over 12–18 months.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — Ambry outperforming industry (low-to-mid 20s vs. low double digits); rare business provides ASP upside.

Topic: 全年业绩指引上调的构成拆解，特别是Ambry业务增长加速与整体指引提升幅度之间的差异。
Key points:
- Ambry Q3同比增长约32%，但管理层预计Q4增速将环比下降。
- 分析师测算Ambry全年收入可能增加约2000万美元，对应Q4约500万美元的增量贡献。
- 管理层强调核心业务增速约30%，指引策略着眼于长期可持续的25%增长，而非短期逐季精确调整。
Mgmt stance: 中性。管理层认为在30%的核心增速下，无需为短期小幅超预期而“人为”拔高预期，更关注未来十年能否维持25%的增长。

Topic: 与阿斯利康及Pathos合作的病理学基础模型进展、后续里程碑及Paige收购的协同效应。
Key points:
- 基础模型即将完成预训练阶段，各项小模型和多模态模型的预测性能（通过C-index等基准衡量）表现良好。
- 未来数月将进入大规模计算阶段，预计2026年初开始后训练，Q1有望推出首个版本。
- 公司正在采购更多GPU容量以加倍投入，并强调其在云和计算支出、软件工程师数量上更像一家科技公司。
- Paige在数字病理学方面拥有自己的基础模型工作，其团队现已并入Tempus基础模型团队，正在整合数据。
Mgmt stance: 看涨。管理层对模型进展“非常满意”，无任何危险信号，并将持续加大投入，认为这是公司的独特优势。

Topic: 医疗系统对数据分析与解读（干实验）进行报销的可能性及其对Tempus算法业务的影响。
Key points:
- 公司的长期25%增长指引几乎完全基于可预测的诊断和数据业务，而非当前几乎无报销的算法业务。
- 管理层认为，面对5.7万亿美元且年增7.5%的医疗支出，系统必须为能识别错误、浪费并实现预测预防的智能（AI）付费，否则无法持续。
- Tempus在数字病理、放射、心脏等多领域拥有大量算法，其中许多已获FDA批准，一旦有报销路径，可通过已连接的5000多家医院快速分发。
- 算法业务（分发0和1）的规模化速度远快于湿实验业务（需收集样本和运行测试），可能实现从1亿到10亿美元收入的跃升。
Mgmt stance: 看涨。管理层认为报销终将实现，且Tempus处于独特有利位置，若迎来“英伟达时刻”，将源于算法获得付费并快速规模化。

Topic: Paige AI在基因组诊断业务中的协同效应与应用实例。
Key points:
- 当测序失败或因样本量/肿瘤含量不足而无法测序时，Paige的数字病理算法可预测常见突变并返回结果，其已有产品获FDA批准。
- 整合后，可对关键结果（如非小细胞肺癌的EGFR突变）在1-2天内做出快速预测。
- 公司的多模态策略旨在结合分子数据、数字化病理数据及影像数据，以最快速度生成最高质量的数据驱动洞察。
Mgmt stance: 看涨。管理层认为通过多模态投资建立深度产品与快速分发的组合，将随时间推移形成显著的差异化优势。