MRVL earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• Q4 FY2026 revenue record $2.219B, up 7% sequentially, 22% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $0.80, $0.01 above guidance midpoint (CEO, CFO)
• Full FY2026 revenue $8.195B, up 42% YoY; data center revenue >$6B, up 46% YoY; custom business doubled YoY (CEO)
• Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance $2.4B ±5%, implying 8% sequential growth, 27% YoY; non-GAAP EPS guidance $0.74–$0.84 (CFO)
• FY2027 revenue outlook raised to approaching $11B, >30% YoY growth; data center revenue expected to grow 40% YoY; interconnect business >50% YoY (CEO)
• FY2028 revenue outlook ~$15B, close to 40% YoY growth; data center revenue expected to grow close to 50% YoY; non-GAAP EPS well over $5 (CEO)
• Q4 data center revenue $1.65B, up 9% sequentially, 21% YoY; all key product lines grew sequentially (CEO)
• FY2026 data center switch revenue >$300M; FY2027 expected to surpass $600M (up from prior $500M) (CEO)
• Custom revenue FY2026 $1.5B; FY2027 expected >20% YoY; FY2028 expected to at least double YoY (CEO)
• Celestial AI/XConn acquisitions closed; combined FY2028 revenue contribution ~$250M; Celestial CPO revenue run-rate target $500M by Q4 FY2028, $1B by Q4 FY2029 (CEO)
• Q4 non-GAAP gross margin 59%; non-GAAP operating margin 35.7%; cash from operations $374M; inventory $1.39B (CFO)
• FY2026 capital returns $2.245B via share repurchases and dividends (CFO)
• Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP OpEx ~$575M, stepping up due to payroll taxes, merit increases, and ~$75M annual OpEx from acquisitions (CFO)

Official Guidance

• Q1 FY2027: Revenue $2.4B ±5%; GAAP gross margin 51.4%–52.4%; non-GAAP gross margin 58.25%–59.25%; non-GAAP EPS $0.74–$0.84 (CFO)
• Full FY2027: Revenue approaching $11B, >30% YoY; data center revenue growing 40% YoY; interconnect >50% YoY; custom >20% YoY (CEO)
• Full FY2028: Revenue ~$15B, close to 40% YoY; data center revenue close to 50% YoY; non-GAAP EPS well over $5 (CEO)

Mgmt Quotes

• "We are seeing very strong demand across our entire data center portfolio with bookings accelerating at a record pace." (CEO)
• "We now see our fiscal 2027 data center revenue growing by 40% year-over-year. We expect all our key product lines in data center to be stronger than our prior outlook." (CEO)
• "We have entered a robust multiyear growth period and are looking forward to delivering strong earnings growth to our stockholders." (CFO)
• "We believe we are still in the early stages of a strong multiyear growth cycle for Marvell." (CEO)
• "Our first quarter fiscal 2027 guidance represents 27% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, reaccelerating from 22% in the prior quarter." (CEO)

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (6-10 of 12)

Q6 — Benjamin Reitzes

• Topic: Revenue progression and calendar 2028 data center target validation
• Key points:
  • Revenue guidance progression: September ~$9.4B, December ~$10B, now ~$11B for current fiscal year; upward revisions ripple into calendar 2027.
  • Interconnect business was previously called conservatively; now tied to GPU/XPU, leading to higher forecasts.
  • Calendar 2028 data center revenue target set in April 2024 at ~$15B (based on 20% market share); at June AI event TAM increased, moving bogey to ~$18B; current trajectory is on track to those targets.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — strong bookings, backlog layering, and detailed customer supply planning provide concrete visibility; validates original ambitious plan.

Q7 — Thomas O'Malley

• Topic: AEC and retimer revenue growth and contribution
• Key points:
  • AEC and retimers more than doubling in fiscal year; base is ~$200 million range, could go higher.
  • Leverages DSP and PAM technology; inflection occurred when retimers and AECs moved from NRZ to PAM.
  • Long-term view: emerging area with room for multiple participants; intends to invest significantly and participate as part of end-to-end interconnect strategy.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — early in cycle, doubling trajectory expected to continue; complements optics and CPO bets.

Q8 — Vivek Arya

• Topic: XPU attach revenue and exclusivity at new XPU customer
• Key points:
  • XPU attach last year in couple of hundred million ballpark; doubling this year, possibly over doubling again next year; by next year likely ~$1B business.
  • Total XPU attached TAM in calendar 2028 ~$15B; company’s total market share goal ~20%, implying ~$3B in that area.
  • New XPU program ramping next year: deep multi-generational engagements; feels very good about position and sustainability.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — two hands on steering wheel with customers; CapEx envelope supports product consumption; investing heavily across key attributes.

Q9 — Tore Svanberg

• Topic: Mix of opto-electronic business (800G vs 1.6T)
• Key points:
  • 800G remains majority and “stronger for longer”; 1.6T had significant shipments at end of last year and will ramp hard this year.
  • 800G expected to remain strong even next year; 1.6T ramp more pronounced with initial customers, more layering on throughout this year and next.
  • Mix is dynamic due to strong bookings and demand environment; exact breakout not provided.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral — cannot give exact numbers yet; mix will become clearer as year progresses.

Q10 — Joseph Moore

• Topic: Supply chain challenges and management
• Key points:
  • Tight supply environment for AI-related items (advanced node wafer, advanced packaging, large body substrate) since ChatGPT launch.
  • Despite tightness, company grew total revenue >40% last year; has very good supplier relationships.
  • Multiple years of visibility provided to suppliers helps secure supply for growth outlined this year, next year, and beyond.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — confident supply is secured for all planned growth due to long-term forecasting and strong supplier partnerships.

Q&A Batch (11-12 of 12)

Q11 — James Schneider

• Topic: Revenue and earnings guidance for next year
• Key points:
  • Guidance: $15 billion revenue, $5 earnings is a "floor" (5-plus), not a prescriptive number.
  • OpEx and gross margin moving pieces: company targets operating model margin exiting this year, which should continue through next year.
  • Current operating margins are in the mid-30s and should float up throughout the year; exit rate consistent with next year.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — mgmt emphasizes leverage and margin improvement, stating earnings will "float above $5" with no dilution or loss of leverage.

Q12 — Christopher Rolland

• Topic: CPO scale-up, Celestial integration, and UALink switch trays
• Key points:
  • CPO deployment relative to pluggable transceivers has been limited historically; that view remains for the near term.
  • Celestial technology integrated into Innovium platform; POCs done, but no current plan for UALink switch trays — ready to react when needed.
  • For scale-up (UAL), CPO technology is inflecting; Celestial brought a significant design win, with shipments starting next year at one large customer, serving scale-up applications (photonic fabric chiplet into XPU and switch side).
  • Beyond next year, strong interest for CPO in scale-up; rest of deployments remain copper-based.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish — mgmt sees CPO inflecting in scale-up, with a clear design win and ramp plan, while maintaining readiness for other applications.