Revenue side: CenterWell saw higher-than-expected patient growth; pharmacy side had better-than-expected revenue growth; Insurance membership decline guidance improved to up to 500,000 vs. prior 550,000.
Medical and operating costs (ex-investments) trending in line or on the better end of expectations.
Medicaid running in line with expectations; three differentiators: LTSS product orientation (vs. traditional Medicaid), state footprint (e.g., Florida issue specific to a population HUM has no exposure to), and network structure with heavy value-based care emphasis.
New Illinois contract coming online; Medicaid now in 10 full states with 3 more coming.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – Medicaid performance in line with expectations; no upside or downside surprise cited.
Q2 — Kevin Mark Fischbeck
Topic: Part D performance and CMS regulations for 2026
Key points:
Part D member mix and Rx trends tracking in line with expectations; low double-digit trend expected and realized; no unexpected behavioral changes.
IRA changes considered in bid strategy and guidance; specialty drug trend high but as expected; co-pay vs. coinsurance structure working as intended.
For 2026: CMS national average bid and risk order changes came in slightly better than expected; industry Part D appears more consistent next year, within range of expectations to slightly better.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – Part D developing as expected; 2026 outlook slightly positive due to CMS rule outcomes.
Q3 — Andrew Mok
Topic: Individual PPO market pullback and implications for HUM’s membership growth/margins
Key points:
HUM reduced benefits in '24 and '25 (only plan to do so in '24; more significant cuts than peers in '25); executed plan/county exits impacting 550,000 members.
Recaptured 40% of exited members in other MA offerings (goal was 50%); recaptured members tracking in line with expectations.
For 2026: benefits largely stable, with some investments and some pullbacks; even with peers cutting significantly, HUM still expects a gap to the next richest benefit in the market.
HUM does not see “bad membership,” only bad benefit packages; believes its product structure is appropriately priced.
Mgmt stance: Bullish – Confident in pricing and benefit structure; sees peer pullback as positive for the sector.
Q4 — Stephen C. Baxter
Topic: Inpatient utilization trends in Medicare Advantage during Q2
Key points:
Inpatient admissions and cost per unit trending in line to on the better end of expectations.
No acceleration observed; early-year flu season was slightly higher but in line with expectations.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – Trends consistent with expectations; no deviation noted.
Q5 — Justin Lake
Topic: Stars performance and outlook
Key points:
Plan preview one (PP1) data not yet released; HUM has no additional visibility on cut points.
Underlying metric performance has improved metric by metric since late September/early October last year.
Final Stars outcome depends on industry-wide improvement and cut points; HUM will enter a quiet period as PP1 data becomes available.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – Operational progress acknowledged, but no concrete Stars guidance due to lack of data.
Q&A Batch (11-14 of 14)
Q11 — David Howard Windley
Topic: Trend assumptions for 2025 and 2026
Key points:
Pharmacy trend: expected low double digits for 2025, same expectation for 2026.
Medical cost trend: expected mid to high single digits for 2025, same expectation for 2026.
Mgmt stance: Neutral — reaffirmed consistent trend assumptions across both years without deviation.
Q12 — Benjamin Whitman Mayo
Topic: RADV lawsuit and CMS clawback assumptions
Key points:
Limited color provided due to ongoing litigation and many unknowns.
Company has long supported auditing of contracts as long as actuarial equivalence between MA and fee-for-service is considered.
Mgmt stance: Cautious — unable to provide specifics due to litigation and uncertainty.
Q13 — Sarah Elizabeth James
Topic: Guidance boost drivers and CenterWell sustainability
Key points:
Guidance boost primarily from run-rating CenterWell PCO outperformance year-to-date.
CenterWell PCO growth expected to continue through 2025 and into 2026.
Other drivers: Specialty outperformance, direct-to-consumer momentum, and better-than-expected membership (loss guidance improved to up to 500,000 from 550,000).
First-quarter items were timing or one-time in nature and not run-rated.
Mgmt stance: Bullish — expects outperformance in CenterWell and other areas to persist into 2026.
Q14 — Celeste Marie Mellet (and James A. Rechtin)
Topic: Membership growth impact on earnings and Star ratings
Key points:
No comment on CMS data received; quiet period until October.
Timing of membership growth matters: late-year membership adds marketing costs with little revenue, creating a headwind.
All expectations for back-end growth in 2025 are already reflected in current guidance.
Mgmt stance: Neutral — no strategic commentary on growth thresholds; guidance already accounts for known timing effects.