Research Reports

Total revenue (pre-fuel surcharge): Q4 $1.7B vs. $1.8B YoY (prepared).
Operating income: $127M, margin 7.6% (prepared).
Net cash from operating activities: $282M, up 8% YoY (prepared).
Free cash flow (Q4): $259M, up 25% YoY (CEO).
Free cash flow (full-year 2025): $832M (CEO).
LTL segment: Revenue $661M (39% of segmented revenue), down 10% YoY; adjusted OR 89.9% vs. 90.3% YoY; operating income $62M vs. $70M YoY; ROIC 12.2% (CEO).
Truckload segment: Revenue $674M (40% of segmented revenue), vs. $693M YoY; OR 93.2% vs. 91.5% YoY; operating income $48M vs. $60M YoY; ROIC 5.8% (CEO).
Logistics segment: Revenue $358M (21% of segmented revenue), vs. $410M YoY; operating income $31M vs. $43M YoY; margin 8.7% vs. 10.5% YoY; ROIC 11.8% (CEO).
Share repurchases (2025): Over $225M of common shares bought back (CEO).
Debt-to-EBITDA: 2.5x at year-end (CEO).

“We generated more than $10 per share of free cash flow in 2025 or $832 million for the year” (CEO).
“Our fourth quarter free cash flow was 25% higher than the year ago figure” (CEO).
“We were able to improve our adjusted OR slightly more than expected to 89.9% relative to 90.3% in the year ago period” (CEO).
“Our balance sheet is a pillar of our strength supported by the $830 million of free cash flow we produced during 2025” (CEO).
“Our outlook assumes no significant change, either positive or negative in the operating environment” (CEO).

Metric	Value	Speaker/Context
Total revenue (pre-fuel surcharge)	$1.7B	Q4 vs. $1.8B YoY (prepared)
Operating income	$127M	Q4, margin 7.6% (prepared)
Net cash from operating activities	$282M	Q4, up 8% YoY (prepared)
Free cash flow (Q4)	$259M	Up 25% YoY (CEO)
Free cash flow (FY 2025)	$832M	FY 2025 (CEO)
LTL revenue	$661M	Down 10% YoY (CEO)
LTL adjusted OR	89.9%	vs. 90.3% YoY (CEO)
Truckload revenue	$674M	vs. $693M YoY (CEO)
Truckload OR	93.2%	vs. 91.5% YoY (CEO)
Logistics revenue	$358M	vs. $410M YoY (CEO)
Logistics margin	8.7%	vs. 10.5% YoY (CEO)
Share repurchases (2025)	>$225M	FY 2025 (CEO)
Debt-to-EBITDA	2.5x	Year-end (CEO)
Q1 2026 adj. diluted EPS guidance	$0.50–$0.60	Range (CEO)
FY 2026 net CapEx (excl. real estate) guidance	$225M–$250M	Range (CEO)

Topic: FY 2026 guidance and underlying scenarios
Key points:
- Q1 2026 EPS guided at $0.50–$0.60, down YoY due to persistent freight recession.
- Truckload shows early positive signs (CDL policy, Driver Inc. T4A) but still very early; U.S./Canadian LTL remains soft through 2026.
- Logistics division expects major improvement in Q3/Q4 (Packard/Freightliner recovery).
- Canadian LTL shows better cost control: claim ratio near 0% in Q4 vs U.S. at 0.9% of revenue.
Mgmt stance: Neutral-to-cautious – transition still underway, early signs uncertain; heavy reliance on March for Q1 results.

Topic: Segment margin drivers behind Q1 EPS guide
Key points:
- Sequential margin deterioration (Q4→Q1): U.S. LTL -250bp (incl. 100bp from weather), Canadian LTL similar; P&C -1000bp; Specialty Truckload flat; Canadian Truckload -100bp; Logistics -150bp.
- January volumes/costs very difficult due to weather; February volumes ticked up.
- March is heavily back-end weighted and lacks visibility.
Mgmt stance: Cautious – Q1 guide based on weak January; February improvement early, but overall outlook uncertain.

Topic: Pricing improvement (spot vs contract) and Q4 beat
Key points:
- Spot rates in van segment are rising; contract rates not yet adjusted due to lingering overcapacity and weak demand.
- Q4 beat internal guidance, but Q1 guide is cautious because January was “horrible” and February only showing early improvement.
- Outcome hinges on U.S.–Canada–Mexico trade agreement (expected by summer 2026) – until then demand remains soft.
Mgmt stance: Cautious – wait for contract rates to follow spot; geopolitical uncertainty prevents clear forecast.

Topic: Specialty Truckload exposure (data centers, industrial) and TForce service metrics
Key points:
- Lone Star (Texas) active in wind and data centers (partnering with Bechtel); new Michigan acquisition bidding on Meta/Google data center jobs.
- U.S. Flatbed revenue >$1B; targeting large customers nationally with high-value/time-sensitive freight.
- TForce service improving:

Topic: Impact of non-domiciled CDL on specialty truckload vs. dry van; U.S. LTL Q1 shipment & weather impact
Key points:
- Non-domiciled CDL impact is greater on van than specialty (flatbed/tanker) due to simpler driving tasks; specialty requires skills like tarping.
- TFII’s Specialty Truckload OR was 93% in Q4, worse than Canada van OR of 91%; mgmt deems this “unacceptable.”
- U.S. LTL Q1 shipments could be flat year-over-year; revenue per shipment may not be positive due to pricing pressure.
- Weather impact estimated at $5M–$6M in Q1 (above normal), affecting major markets (Northeast, Midwest, Texas); Dallas shut down for 3 days due to ice.
Mgmt stance: Neutral/cautious – unclear on exact CDL benefit specialty; LTL volume flat but pricing pressure persists; weather is exceptional.

Topic: Q4 2026 EPS comp vs. Q4 2025; logistics margin improvement & outlook
Key points:
- Q4 2025 EPS was $1.19; Q1 2026 guided ~$0.50 (roughly 50% drop), wider than typical sequential decline.
- Logistics expected to do “way better” in Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025 due to late Q4 2025 acquisition and busier OEM customers.
- Specialty Truckload OR at 93% is “completely unacceptable”; actions taken (e.g., shedding poor accounts at Daseke/West Coast division).
- U.S. logistics faces near-term pressure from rising spot rates vs. contracted rates; Canadian logistics performing well.
Mgmt stance: Cautiously bullish – believes Q4 2026 will see improvement across segments due to actions and market easing; Q1 2026 is a “special environment” due to tariffs/uncertainty.

Topic: LTL linehaul outsourcing (rail/third-party/owner-ops); plans to reduce outsourced miles
Key points:
- Current LTL linehaul mix: 20% rail, 55% company-owned, 25% third-party + owner-ops (total 45% outsourced).
- Average length of haul ~1,000 miles; rail use at 20% considered appropriate if haul remains above that.
- Company-owned fleet could increase to ~60% over time; rail likely stays at ~20% if average length of haul remains high.
- Strategic goal: reduce average length of haul to touch product less, which would shift mix over time.
Mgmt stance: Neutral – comfortable with rail share given long hauls; but sees opportunity to increase company-owned fleet to improve service control.

Topic: Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $0.50–$0.60; full-year margin/EPS outlook; capital intensity reduction in Truckload
Key points:
- Q4 2025 had no one-time items except $5M tax benefit; Q1 2026 guidance is conservative due to weak Jan/Feb (especially TForce Freight, where March makes most profit).
- U.S. LTL Q1 shipments flat year-over-year; revenue per shipment under pressure; GRI scheduled for mid-March (later than peers, done to avoid service issues).
- Full-year 2026 plan: EPS higher than 2025, driven by logistics improvement, Truckload OR improvement from 93%, and LTL organic growth.
- Truckload depreciation expense in 2025 was reduced; Q4 2025 DNA was $3M lower year-over-year, with further declines expected in 2026 due to lower equipment intensity.
Mgmt stance: Cautiously bullish – guidance is conservative but full-year EPS expected to increase; capital efficiency improving in Truckload (lower depreciation).