SHEL · Shell plc

Shell plc's Q1 2026 outlook update highlights segment-specific pressures and opportunities amid geopolitical and market volatility. Integrated Gas faces downward pressure on production from the Middle East conflict impacting Qatari volumes, narrowing the range to 880-920 kboe/d from prior 920-980 kboe/d, though LNG liquefaction holds steady at 7.6-8.0 MT buoyed by LNG Canada ramp-up offsetting Australia weather and Qatar outages. Upstream production dips to 1,760-1,860 kboe/d due to the Adura JV incorporation, with elevated tax charges from Nigeria onshore and UK portfolio shifts. Marketing anticipates significantly higher adjusted earnings versus Q1’25, supported by steady sales volumes outlook of 2,550-2,650 kb/d. Chemicals and Products shows refining margin expansion to $17/bbl from Q4’25 $14/bbl and higher utilisations, though chemicals margin slips slightly to $139/tonne with earnings stable to Q1’25; trading optimisation expected significantly higher. Renewables and Energy Solutions adjusted earnings improve markedly to 0.2-0.7 $ billion, driven by trading gains. Corporate losses widen to (1.0)-(0.8) $ billion. Group-level cash flow from operations faces tax paid of 2.0-2.8 $ billion and a substantial working capital outflow of (15)-(10) $ billion from unprecedented commodity price volatility affecting inventory and receivables. Non-cash net debt to rise $3-4 billion from shipping lease variables. Outlooks exclude identified items and carry heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions, with full results on May 7, 2026.