BP · BP p.l.c.

BP p.l.c.'s 1Q26 trading statement highlights the impact of heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined products prices due to ongoing Middle East tensions and market conditions, leading to dislocations between marker prices and bp's realized prices, exacerbated by price lags particularly in Gulf of America (one-month lag) and UAE (two-month lag). Upstream production remains broadly flat at around 2,344 mboe/d versus 4Q25, with gas & low carbon energy slightly up from 788 mboe/d supporting realizations that are flat despite lags and non-Henry Hub price shifts, while gas marketing and trading holds average. Oil production & operations sees slightly lower output from 1,555 mboe/d, with realizations providing a $0.1-0.2 billion tailwind, though higher cash costs by $0.1 billion and flat $2.0 billion DD&A reflect production mix shifts. In customers & products, customer results show seasonally lower volumes and retail fuels margins offset by stronger midstream, while products benefits from $0.1-0.2 billion higher refining margins (bp RIM $16.9/bbl vs $15.2/bbl), reduced turnaround activity, and exceptional oil trading versus weak 4Q25. Balance sheet pressures emerge with net debt rising to $25-27 billion from $22.2 billion, driven by a $4-7 billion working capital build tied to price surges (Brent $81.13/bbl vs $63.73/bbl, Henry Hub $5.05/mmBtu vs $3.55/mmBtu). Underlying ETR at 35% reflects stronger products profits, and organic capex flat at $3.5 billion aligns with first-half weighting in $13-13.5 billion FY26 guidance. Full 1Q26 results due 28 April 2026, with prior FY26 guidance largely intact barring explicit updates.