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10-Q2026-08-04· merged:deepseek-v4-flash

UPST · Upstart Holdings, Inc.

0001647639-26-000063

SEC filing

Summary

放款额同比增50%驱动费用收入增45%,但获客成本攀升使贡献利润率由58%降至55%,增长质量承压。

Key takeaways

Full analysis

业绩速览与解读

KPI 速览

指标本期去年同期同比
Revenue$364.7M$257.3M+42%
Operating Income$14.6M$4.5M+222%
Operating Margin4%2%+200 bps
Net Income$16.5M$5.6M+195%
Adj. EBITDA$76.9M$53.1M+45%
Adj. EBITDA Margin21%21%0 bps
Contribution Profit$193.1M$140.5M+37%
Contribution Margin55%58%-300 bps
Originations, Dollars$4,227.2M$2,820.4M+50%
Originations, Number of Loans558,014372,599+50%
Conversion Rate19.7%21.0%-130 bps
Percentage of Loans Fully Automated91%92%-100 bps

业绩解读

增长桥以规模为核心:Originations, Dollars 同比增50%至$4,227.2M,带动 Revenue from fees, net 增45%至$348.0M;其中平台与推荐费增40%至$284.1M,服务及其他费增44%至$54.8M,并新增 Loan sales fees $9.1M。Originations, Number of Loans 增速(+50%)与金额增速持平,但公司指出平均贷款规模下降,因模型改进提升了小额贷款类别的批准率。Conversion Rate 由21.0%降至19.7%,公司归因于向更广泛借款人群体扩张及承保模型精度提升。

利润率呈"增收不增利"特征:Contribution Margin 由58%降至55%(-300 bps),主因 Borrower acquisition costs 由$60.9M升至$102.3M、Borrower verification and servicing costs 由$39.3M升至$52.6M,直接费用增速(+55%)快于费用收入(+45%)。Sales and marketing 增57%至$114.5M,占收入比由28%升至31%;Customer operations、Engineering、G&A 占收入比分别由18%/27%/25%降至17%/26%/22%,部分对冲。Adjusted EBITDA Margin 持平于21%,规模效应尚未转化为利润率。

盈利质量偏薄:Income from operations 仅$14.6M(Operating Margin 4%),Net income $16.5M 中含 Other income, net $2.5M 及低有效税率(Provision for income taxes 仅$0.6M)。Adjusted EBITDA $76.9M 与净利差距主要来自 Stock-based compensation and certain payroll tax expenses $45.9M、Depreciation and amortization $7.1M、Expense on convertible notes $5.1M 及 Reorganization expenses $1.7M。信用端,2023Q2–2026Q1 个人贷 vintage 混合目标年化回报约10.8%,2023Q2–2024Q1 及2024Q4 vintage 预计低于目标,2024Q2–Q3 及2025Q1 及以后 vintage 预计达标;UMI 约1.50,宏观仍贡献约50%增量还款风险。

分部表现

分部营收同比经营利润/EBITDA利润率驱动
Platform and referral fees, net$284.1M+40%——放款额增50%,被更高的loan premium fees与loan trailing fees部分抵消
Servicing and other fees, net$54.8M+44%——服务贷款本金余额上升、服务权净收益增加、借款人费用上升
Loan sales fees$9.1M新增——forward-flow贷款出售量增加

资产负债 · 资本配置

资产负债与流动性

项目2026-06-302025-12-31变化
Cash & equivalents$455,957K$652,388K-$196,431K
Restricted cash$526,320K$404,624K+$121,696K
Loans (at fair value)$1,064,239K$984,552K+$79,687K
Beneficial interest assets$545,938K$396,216K+$149,722K
Total Debt(Borrowings)$2,003,129K$1,829,145K+$173,984K
Payable to securitization note holders$32,122K$46,542K-$14,420K
Shareholders' Equity$797,488K$798,815K-$1,327K

Notes 未披露 Marketable securities、RPO / Deferred revenue 及 EBITDA,故不列示;Net Debt 因 Marketable securities 未披露而不计算。现金及等价物下降 $196.4M,而总债务上升 $174.0M,流动性缓冲明显收窄。

资本配置

项目金额/数量说明
股票回购(上半年)$100,325K / 3,193,294 股股本由 98,033,361 股降至 97,306,813 股
借款新增$424,550K融资活动现金流入
借款偿还$253,833K融资活动现金流出
净债务变化+$173,984KBorrowings 由 $1,829,145K 升至 $2,003,129K
股票期权行权所得$1,551K942,851 股
ESPP 发行所得$4,626K177,378 股
股票薪酬费用(上半年)$82,929K非现金费用

Notes 未披露股息、回购剩余授权额度或新授权,故不列示。资本配置以回购 $100.3M 与净增债务 $174.0M 为主,股东权益因回购与净利几乎抵消而基本持平。

分部与客户集中度

收入构成(Revenue from fees, net)2026 上半年2025 上半年变化
Platform and referral fees, net$508,684K$353,820K+$154,864K
Servicing and other fees, net$103,919K$72,432K+$31,487K
Loan sales fees$12,479K—新增列示
合计$625,082K$426,252K+$198,830K
客户集中度(占总收入)2026 Q22025 Q2
Customer A36%35%
Customer B17%22%
Customer C*10%

Notes 未按分部披露 operating income 或 op margin,故不列示。收入结构仍以平台与推荐费为主,Customer A 占比升至 36%,集中度进一步上升。

承诺、VIE 与表外敞口

项目2026-06-302025-12-31变化
合并 VIE 总资产$885,485K$915,955K-$30,470K
合并 VIE 总负债$293,073K$167,444K+$125,629K
合并 VIE 净资产$592,412K$748,511K-$156,099K
未合并证券化 VIE 最大损失敞口$121,380K$101,670K+$19,710K
承诺资本/共同投资最大损失敞口$1,294,361K$931,760K+$362,601K

Notes 提及 Commitments and Contingencies(Note 11),但所提供文本未含具体采购承诺金额或到期时间表,故不列示 purchase commitments。合并 VIE 负债上升 $125.6M,主要来自合并仓储实体借款由 $101,791K 升至 $253,191K;表外最大损失敞口同步扩大,需关注承诺资本安排的风险敞口。

现金流质量

项目本期去年同期
Operating Cash Flow-$269.9M-$133.6M
Capex(设备+资本化软件)$13.2M$10.5M
Free Cash Flow——
FCF 转化率 (FCF/Net Income)——
Share Repurchases$100.1M—
Dividends Paid——

现金流质量点评:净利润为正($9.9M)而 CFO 为 -$269.9M,二者严重背离,主因贷款购买与发放($6.05B)大幅超过出售回款($5.53B),叠加贷款公允价值变动 +$74.1M 的非现金调整,营运资本占用是核心拖累。资本支出仅 $13.2M,强度很低,但经营现金净流出使 FCF 无法覆盖 $100.1M 的股票回购,资本返还实际由现金储备支撑(现金及等价物由 $652.4M 降至 $456.0M)。