RGTI earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• Q3 2025 revenue was $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million in Q3 2024; decline attributed to expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and pending reauthorization (CFO).
• Gross margin fell to 21% in Q3 2025 from 51% in Q3 2024, due to revenue composition and lower-margin U.K. National Quantum Computing Center contracts (CFO).
• Total OpEx was $21.0 million in Q3 2025, up from $18.6 million in Q3 2024, driven by salary increases, new hires, and higher stock-based compensation and consulting costs, primarily in R&D (CFO).
• Stock-based compensation expense: $4.3 million in Q3 2025 vs. $3.4 million in Q3 2024 (CFO).
• Operating loss: $20.5 million in Q3 2025 vs. $17.3 million in Q3 2024 (CFO).
• Non-GAAP net loss: $10.7 million ($0.03 per share) in Q3 2025 vs. $13.4 million ($0.07 per share) in Q3 2024 (CFO).
• Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments at Sept 30, 2025: $558.9 million; zero debt. Post-quarter through Nov 6, 2025, an additional $46.5 million from warrant exercises brought the total to approximately $600 million (CFO).
• Announced purchase orders totaling ~$5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera systems in September 2025 (CEO).
• Announced a 3-year $5.8 million contract from AFRL for superconducting quantum networking, collaborating with QphoX (CEO).
• Technology roadmap: by end of 2025, 100+ qubit system with 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity; by/around end of 2026, 150+ qubit system with 99.7% fidelity; by/around end of 2027, 1,000+ qubit system with 99.8% fidelity (CEO).
• Not selected for DARPA QBI Phase B at this time; received constructive feedback and continues to work with DARPA (CEO).
• Plans to open an Italian subsidiary in the coming months to pursue business and talent opportunities (CEO).

Official guidance: No explicit next-quarter or full-year guidance ranges provided.

Management Quotes

• "We remain on track to deliver our 100-plus qubit chiplet-based quantum system with an anticipated 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025." (CEO)
• "We expect to deploy a 150-plus qubit system by or around the end of 2026, with an anticipated 99.7% median 2-qubit gate fidelity." (CEO)
• "By or around the end of 2027, we expect to deploy a 1,000-plus qubit system with an anticipated 99.8% median 2-qubit gate fidelity." (CEO)
• "The recent sales... the 2 9-qubit Novera system sales and the AFRL contract will benefit revenue in the fourth quarter and as we move into 2026." (CFO)
• "Although we were not selected at this time for Phase B, we received constructive feedback regarding our proposal and we will continue to work with their team." (CEO)

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (6-10 of 11)

Q6 — Brian Kinstlinger

• Topic: 9-qubit chiplet fidelity progress and 100- to 1,000-qubit roadmap
• Key points:
  • Currently manufacturing 9-qubit chiplets; on track for >100 qubit at 99.5% fidelity by end of 2025.
  • Expect >150 qubit at 99.7% fidelity by end of 2026, and >1,000 qubit at 99.8% by end of 2027.
  • For 1,000-qubit target, chiplet size will increase from 9 to 36 qubits; that validation work starts next year.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish – current 9-qubit chiplet data gives high confidence in both 2025 and 2026 milestones.

Q7 — Richard Shannon

• Topic: CapEx for new fab, foundry model, and gross margin outlook
• Key points:
  • Existing 150mm fab in Fremont can support needs for 2–3 years, including 2027 1,000-qubit milestone.
  • Future fab needed for beyond 99.9% fidelity; likely 200mm or 300mm with automation, cost hundreds of millions of dollars (vs. $20–25B for CMOS).
  • Decision on CapEx expected roughly one year from now; potential national lab partnership could reduce Rigetti’s share.
  • Q3 gross margins lower due to contract variability; Novera system sales expected to have better margins.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral – acknowledges need for significant CapEx but sees multiple funding pathways (national initiative, partnership, or self-funding); margin recovery expected from system sales.

Q8 — Troy Jensen

• Topic: Application targets for 1,000-qubit systems and customer upgrade path
• Key points:
  • With 1,000 physical qubits at 99.8% fidelity, hybrid systems (NVIDIA, CPUs, GPUs) can tackle drug discovery, financial forecasting, material synthesis – not encryption/decryption.
  • Customers buy 9-qubit systems to understand hardware basics; systems are designed for upgrades (chip, wiring) supporting up to ~50 qubits.
  • Upgrades will trigger additional revenue.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish – believes applications like forecasting and drug discovery will adopt quantum in a hybrid setup within a couple of years.

Q9 — David Williams

• Topic: External foundry feasibility and control system/M&A path
• Key points:
  • No existing foundry can currently meet Rigetti’s superconducting gate-based requirements; peer companies (IBM, Google) also do not use foundry model.
  • Discussions ongoing with foundries working on other modalities (photonics, annealing), but no capability transfer today.
  • Control system partnership with Quanta Computer is solid; flex cables for dilution refrigerator are developed internally with subcontractors.
  • Open to M&A if it accelerates roadmap, but current path is sufficient.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral – cautious on external foundry (no immediate solution), confident on internal control system and cabling IP.

Q10 — Quinn Bolton

• Topic: DOE funding and NQI Act reauthorization
• Key points:
  • Original NQI Act (2018) provided $625M over 5 years; expired end of 2023.
  • Latest bill passed reinstates $625M over 5 years ($125M/year) – better than zero but far below earlier discussions of $2.5B.
  • Expect larger DOE funding in coming months, but timing and final amount uncertain due to government processes.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral – acknowledges progress but notes significant gap between current funding and discussed amounts; future upside uncertain.

Q&A Batch (11-11 of 11)

Q11 — Tyler Perry Anderson

• Topic: Q4 share count guidance and new foundry tooling decisions
• Key points:
  • 截至11月6日流通股为3.3亿股；Q4末预计约3.35亿股，具体取决于权证行权情况。
  • 现有Fremont晶圆厂足以支撑2026/2027路线图里程碑；新厂（8英寸或12英寸）仅作为备选，现有工具除少数外基本不能复用，全部新购需数亿美元CapEx。
  • 新工具应可升级，因类型相似；公司仍在评估现有代工厂（如超导退火类）的可用性，它们已具备部分但不全部所需工艺（约瑟夫森结、铝/钽等超导材料）。
• Mgmt stance: 中性偏谨慎。管理层强调优先通过现有代工模式降低投资，但若此路不通，自建新厂将带来大量资本支出。