Research Reports

Prepared Highlights

Record Q2 deliveries globally; sequential growth: Americas +60%, APAC +27%, EMEA +12% (CFO). Model Y set records in the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand (CFO). Largest order backlog since 2023 (CFO).
FSD attach: 55% of North America deliveries had FSD subscription at delivery; 1.5M paid customers globally (55% upfront, 45% subscriptions) (CFO).
Automotive margins (ex-credits) declined from 19.2% (Q1) to 16.3% (Q2); excluding $230M Q1 warranty true-down and tariff relief, sequential margins were roughly flat (CFO). Impacted by commodity prices and interest rate subvention costs (CFO).
Energy: 13.5 GWh deployed (+53% sequential, 2nd largest quarter) (CFO). Energy gross margins fell from 39.5% to 20.4% due to $240M warranty true-up for legacy vendor cells, non-repeat of $200M+ tariff benefits, and ASP decline (CFO). Long-term normalized margin guided to mid‑/low‑20% (CFO).
Service & Other margins improved to 14.1% (all‑time high) from 9.2% (CFO).
Operating expenses increased sequentially driven by R&D for Semi, Optimus, Cybercab, AI compute, and litigation (CFO).
Net income included $1B mark‑to‑market gain on SpaceX, offset by ~$300M FX loss and ~$100M Bitcoin loss (CFO).
Free cash flow negative; CapEx more than doubled sequentially and expected to increase in H2 2026 (CFO).
Robotaxi: >380,000 unsupervised miles across 6 U.S. cities (2 states), zero notable incidents (Ashok). Weekly miles growing at double‑digit compound rate; early v15 software (40% of 7 improvement tracks merged) already in fleet (Ashok). Fleet expanded to 7 markets (CFO).
New products: Cybercab production started (CEO). Optimus production line in Fremont; initial ramp expected flat then S‑curve due to entirely new supply chain (CEO). Terafab location to be announced; development fab in Austin combining lithography, logic, memory, packaging, chip testing (CEO).
Megapod design: AI4 + x86 computers in boxes at superchargers (7 GW power at superchargers) for distributed AI compute (CEO).

Official guidance

Full‑year CapEx: more than $25B (CFO). CapEx to grow for next 2–3 years for robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductor fab, solar manufacturing, AI compute (CFO).
No revenue, EPS, or delivery‑volume guidance provided.

Mgmt quotes

"This is a massive CapEx year, but I'm confident that all the things that we're investing in will yield incredible returns, really the best CapEx returns that we've ever seen." (CEO)
"55% of our deliveries had FSD subscription at the time of delivery enabled. Overall, FSD attach rates continue to improve, reaching nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally." (CFO)
"We have driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised robotaxi now across six cities in two different states. We have had zero notable incidents." (Ashok)
"Optimus will follow the normal S‑curve of a manufacturing ramp, but the initial portion will be quite flat and long because of the newness of the parts." (CEO)
"We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion. CapEx will grow for the next two to three years as we expand our robotaxi fleet, expand production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab..." (CFO)

Prepared Metrics

Metric	Value	Speaker/Context
Q2 deliveries sequential growth (Americas)	+60%	CFO
Q2 deliveries sequential growth (APAC)	+27%	CFO
Q2 deliveries sequential growth (EMEA)	+12%	CFO
Automotive gross margin ex‑credits (Q2)	16.3%	CFO
Automotive gross margin ex‑credits (Q1)	19.2%	CFO
Q1 one‑time benefits not repeated	~$230M warranty true‑down + tariff relief	CFO
Energy storage deployed (Q2)	13.5 GWh	CFO
Energy gross margin (Q2)	20.4%	CFO
Energy gross margin (Q1)	39.5%	CFO
Energy warranty true‑up (Q2)	~$240M	CFO
Energy tariff benefits not repeated (Q2)	>$200M	CFO
Service & Other margin (Q2)	14.1% (all‑time high)	CFO
Net income – SpaceX mark‑to‑market gain	$1B	CFO
Net income – FX loss	~$300M	CFO
Net income – Bitcoin loss	~$100M	CFO
CapEx full‑year guidance	>$25B	CFO
Debt facility capacity	up

Q&A Batch (1-5 of 5)

Q1 — Andrew Percoco

Topic: Optimus供应链投资与机器人出租车监管
Key points:
- 供应商（三星、台积电、松下、美光）已投入数十亿美元支持Optimus和机器人出租车：台积电亚利桑那州晶圆厂、三星得州晶圆厂（数十亿美元AI计算）、松下增加电池产能（数十亿美元）、美光提供内存分配（合理条款）。
- 特斯拉在无法找到合适合作伙伴时直接内部制造，拥有强大的制造工程和设计团队。
- 监管方面：联邦NHTSA支持FMVSS规则接纳无方向盘车辆；州级（如新泽西）令人失望。特斯拉主张以性能驱动监管，反对提前指定解决方案。
Mgmt stance: 看涨——合作伙伴投资庞大且关系良好；监管层面自信可通过性能证明赢得支持。

Q2 — Colin Langan

Topic: SpaceX与Tesla合并协同效应；机器人出租车扩张策略
Key points:
- 合并事宜无法在电话会议讨论，但双方合作持续深化：2026年初通过投资和框架协议加深关系，涵盖Terafab、Digital Optimus、Grok、Starlink集成（Cybercab及未来所有车型）。
- 机器人出租车跨城市扩张而非集中单城，目的是验证通用性（不依赖特定城市工程），并处理运营层面的问题。当前里程增长呈指数级（早期阶段），车辆几乎连续运营，少量车辆即可积累大量里程。
- Cybercab是新底盘，需积累专用驾驶数据（改装带方向盘/刹车的测试车），之后数量将“急剧增加”。
- 各城市/州监管框架不同，需逐一满足合规要求。
Mgmt stance: 看涨——合作协同效应明确；机器人出租车扩张策略稳健，指数增长预期，Cybercab数据积累后放量。

Q3 — Lars Moravy

Topic: 机器人出租车跨城市扩张的监管原因
Key points:
- 各城市/州的交通监管法规不同，美国缺乏统一的联邦框架，因此必须逐一满足每个城市的要求。
- 特斯拉会继续按计划逐一扩展，并配合Ashok和Vaibhav提到的运营规模提升。
Mgmt stance: 中性（事实陈述）——解释运营决策原因，无明确乐观或悲观倾向。

Q4 — Walter Piecyk

Topic: NHTSA法规限制与Starlink/Semi自动驾驶路线图
Key points:
- 与NHTSA关系良好，已提前数年沟通规划，虽未“完全同步”但视其为合作伙伴。
- Cybercab可作为Starlink移动热点；特斯拉Semi自动驾驶预计2026年底或2027年初实现，但为优先确保Model 3/Y和Cybercab的通用无监督自动驾驶，Semi项目将延后约6个月。
- Starlink集成解决了蜂窝网络盲区问题（如硅谷部分地区信号差），并支持车内4K直播等高带宽应用。
Mgmt stance: 看涨——联邦层面无实质障碍；Semi自动驾驶时间表明确且不干扰主要车型进度。

Q5 — William Stein

Topic: Optimus芯片自产 vs 外采；FSD硬件升级计划
Key points:
- Optimus 3的电力电子和电路板由特斯拉设计、供应商制造；Optimus 4（将在奥斯汀生产）将大幅垂直整合（目标年产量1000万台，较Optimus 3的100万台提升一个数量级），内部承担大部分PCV（印刷电路板）工作。
- AI芯片升级路线：AI4.5（中等改进）预计2027年中量产，AI5预计同年底量产，先用于Optimus。特斯拉芯片团队进展极快，目标打造世界最佳边缘计算芯片。
- 现有Hardware 3及更早车型的FSD硬件升级计划：具备摄像头的车型升级至下一代AI板（AI4.5），预计2027