Research Reports

Seaborne Thermal: Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $33.5M, 17% margins; volumes lost 400K tons due to port congestion; segment beat cost guidance (CFO).
Seaborne Metallurgical: Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.2M; realized prices down ~23% YoY; costs below targets (CFO).
U.S. Thermal (PRB): Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $43M; $2.16/ton margin despite $0.20/ton quality adjustment from rain; volumes exceeded expectations (CFO).
Other U.S. Thermal: Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $13.5M; Bear Run rail issues, Twentymile challenging conditions in 6 East panel (CFO).
Total adjusted EBITDA: Q2 $93M; GAAP net loss $27.6M ($0.23/diluted share) (CFO).
Operating cash flow: Q2 $23M; cash balance $586M, liquidity ~$1B (CFO).
CapEx: Full-year guidance reduced by $30M to $420M (CFO).
Centurion: Longwall start-up accelerated to February 2026; shield installation begins November; ~260 employees hired, targeting ~400 by early 2026 (CEO).
U.S. coal generation: Up 15% in H1 2025 vs H1 2024; customer stockpiles down ~15M tonnes (11% YoY), lowest since 2022 (CMO).
PRB royalty benefit: $15M–$20M net benefit from federal royalty rate cut (12.5% to 7%) in H2 2025 (CEO).
Met coal capacity offline: Over 25M tonnes globally; substantial volume in loss-making mode (CMO).

Q3 2025 Seaborne Thermal: Volumes 3.9M tons (2.7M export); 600K tons priced avg $82/ton; 1M tons Newcastle and 1.1M tons high ash unpriced; cost $45–$50/ton (CFO).
Q3 2025 Seaborne Met: Volumes 2.2M tons; cost ~$115/ton (CFO).
Q3 2025 PRB: Volumes 23M tons; cost ~$11.25/ton (CFO).
Q3 2025 Other U.S. Thermal: Volumes 3.7M tons; cost ~$47/ton (CFO).
FY 2025 Seaborne Thermal: Volumes +200K tons; cost $45–$48/ton (improved $3/ton) (CFO).
FY 2025 Seaborne Met: Cost $115–$120/ton (improved $7.50/ton) (CFO).
FY 2025 PRB: Volumes +5M tons; cost $11.50–$12/ton (improved $0.63/ton) (CFO).
FY 2025 CapEx: $420M (reduced $30M) (CFO).

"Peabody has had a great first half of the year. We've had record safety, solid volumes, strong cost containment." (CEO)
"The world is turning towards coal. I'll remind investors that the IEA reports that the world set a record for coal demand in 2024 after doing so also in 2023 and has not yet peaked." (CEO)
"We are seeing early signs of an upturn with the real question of not if, but instead when." (CMO)
"Our strategy remains to manage the lower points of the cycle to capture outsized free cash flow when we return to better price points." (CFO)
"We are highly confident that sustainable longwall mining won't take place at Moranbah North until after a new longwall is fully commissioned in a new section of the mine in 2026." (CEO)

Metric	Value	Speaker/Context
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA	$93M	CFO
Q2 GAAP Net Loss	$27.6M ($0.23/diluted share)	CFO
Q2 Operating Cash Flow	$23M	CFO
Cash (end Q2)	$586M	CFO
Liquidity (end Q2)	~$1B	CFO
Q2 Seaborne Thermal EBITDA	$33.5M	CFO
Q2 Seaborne Met EBITDA Loss	$9.2M	CFO
Q2 PRB EBITDA	$43M	CFO
Q2 Other U.S. Thermal EBITDA	$13.5M	CFO
PRB Q2 Margin	$2.16/ton	CFO
PRB Royalty Benefit H2 2025	$15M–$20M	CEO
FY CapEx Guidance	$420M (reduced $30M)	CFO
Centurion Longwall Start	February 2026	CEO
Centurion Employees Hired	~260 (target ~400 by early 2026)	CEO
U.S. Coal Generation H1 2025 vs H1 2024	+15%	CMO
Customer Stockpiles vs Prior Year	-15M tonnes (-11%)	CMO
Global Met Coal Capacity Offline	>25M tonnes	CMO

Topic: MAC争议与交易终止风险
Key points:
- 双方对Moranbah North矿是否构成重大不利变化（MAC）有根本分歧；Peabody认为有充分数据支持MAC，Anglo不认为。
- 90天治愈期将于8月19日结束，之后Peabody有权终止协议。
- 若终止协议，BUMA交易也将同步终止（背靠背结构）。
Mgmt stance: neutral – 等待8月19日，不透露谈判细节。

Topic: MAC原因分析与成本指引调整
Key points:
- MAC因素：点火原因未确定、当前长壁是否可恢复、未来可能降产、月度损失持续到明年。
- 海运热煤全年成本指引中值下调$3/吨；因港口拥堵损失40万吨产量，7月已恢复，全年产量指引上调20万吨。
- 团队成本控制表现优异，第二季度成本再度下降。
Mgmt stance: bullish – 对成本管理进展满意。

Topic: Centurion进度与PRB特许权使用费
Key points:
- Centurion南段长壁生产提前至2026年Q1；已投入$600M，剩余约$100M；2025年产量目标3.5百万吨不变。
- PRB特许权使用费从12.5%降至7%，已纳入下半年指引；下半年净收益约$0.40/吨（$15–20M），全年约$60M。
- 2026年约2/3产量已签约，2027年约50%签约。
Mgmt stance: bullish – 资产开发领先进度，PRB成本竞争力提升。

Topic: 生产税收抵免与资产销售
Key points:
- Shoal Creek冶金煤2.5%生产税收抵免2026年1月1日生效，预计每年约$5M。
- Q2意外资产销售（Wambo连续采矿机、美国土地）抵消了港口拥堵损失（40万吨），销售具有偶发性，下半年无大项可预测。
- 全年业绩整体按计划推进。
Mgmt stance: neutral – 资产销售不可预测，无下半年大项指引。

Topic: 流动性、受限现金与Centurion资本
Key points:
- 期末现金及现金等价物$586M，全部无限制、无抵押；受限现金约$800–850M，主要为预存的复垦担保金。
- Centurion南段还需约$100M，总资本支出约$495M（原目标$489M）。
- 受限现金中约$520M与复垦担保有关，可通过完成复垦工作逐步释放（年初目标减少$100M，已有进展）。
Mgmt stance: neutral/bullish – 流动性无虞，复垦担保有望持续降低。