Topic: Safe harbor revenue outlook, core sell-through trends, and new product (SST) opportunity.
Key points:
Q2 safe harbor revenue estimated at $85M; Q3 safe harbor expected to be $40M-$50M.
Q1 and Q2 sell-through expectations are 10%-15% below prior view due to EPO financing challenges and unfavorable weather.
[Propel] prepaid lease originations reached 200 per week (approx. 90-100MW annual run rate) with 84% battery attach rate.
Europe showing double-digit percentage increases in April vs. Q1 monthly run rate (Netherlands battery activations +75%, France +20%, Germany +27%).
IQ SST is a 2028 revenue opportunity; 18 engineers working full-time, demo system targeted by end of 2026, customer pilots in 2027.
Mgmt stance: Cautious — acknowledges market is "fickle" and declines to provide Q3/Q4 guidance, but highlights encouraging signs from [Propel] and Europe.
Q2 — Praneeth Satish
Topic: Installer landscape changes and C&I revenue trajectory.
Key points:
Enphase did zero business with Freedom Forever; expects to get fair share of redistributed demand.
Q1 C&I revenue was a little more than $5M (high single digits).
C&I business is expected to be lumpy; safe harbor window closing in early July could drive Q3 orders.
New IQ9 548W high-power commercial product shipping expected in Q3.
Mgmt stance: Neutral — sees opportunity from market redistribution but notes C&I will be lumpy until a steady pipeline is established.
Q3 — Colin Rusch
Topic: Channel inventory geography and SST customer engagement timeline.
Key points:
Channel inventory buildup is mostly in the U.S.
Engaged with approximately 20 prospective SST customers.
Demonstration system targeted for end of 2026, followed by customer pilots in 2027 and volume shipments in 2028.
Mgmt stance: Bullish on SST long-term — focused on hitting demo milestone this year, with a clear multi-year development roadmap.
Q4 — Philip Shen
Topic: Q3/Q4 qualitative outlook, SST margins, and $30M credit facility.
Key points:
Q1 sell-through was 10%-15% below the ~$250M expectation; Q1 overshipped by ~$25M, to be corrected by under-shipping in Q2.
Q2 native sell-through expected to be slightly better than Q1 due to seasonality.
Potential Q3/Q4 upside drivers: [Propel] ramp, Europe recovery, IQ battery 5P qualification (64 utilities), and small commercial safe harbor orders.
SST margin discussion is premature; focus is on 1.25MW customer demo by end of 2026.
Mgmt stance: Cautious — cites many moving parts and challenges (tax equity, bankruptcies) but is working on multiple initiatives to drive improvement.
Q5 — Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Topic: [Propel] ramp targets and tax equity limitations.
Key points:
Target is to reach a run rate of 500 originations per week by end of Q4 2026.
Currently at 200 installers using [Propel]; long-term goal is for installer count to be a healthy multiple of 200.
Declined to comment on tax equity as a limitation, stating it is a question for the partner.
Mgmt stance: Bullish on [Propel] — expresses a clear ramp target and sees the program as a key initiative for long-tail installers.