VSH 的投资备忘 · 买入价格/数量等也记在这里
VSH处于"Vishay 3.0"重资本转型阵痛期,Q1 FY26订单与毛利率双拐点初现(Book-to-Bill 1.34、GM回升至21%),AI数据中心与汽车SiC构成FY27后的二阶弹性。关键上行变量是Itzehoe H2'26按期投产+Newport扭亏(每兑现一项给毛利率200-300bps),下行变量是FCF连续两年为负(累计>$200M)可能迫使股息削减。当前$47.25已隐含中性情景的P/S 2.0x定价,在 FY27 EPS可见度提升前,18个月目标价 **$48**(中性 EV/Sales 2.2x + EV/EBITDA 11x 综合),维持 **Hold**。
| Segment | Q1 FY26 | Q4 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q2 FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOSFETs | 174.0 | 162.5 | 167.1 | 148.6 |
| Diodes | 163.7 | 156.2 | 149.6 | 147.9 |
| Optoelectronics | 58.9 | 57.8 | 55.6 | 54.1 |
| Resistors | 203.7 | 198.4 | 195.7 | 194.8 |
| Inductors | 92.2 | 89.5 | 92.0 | 95.7 |
| Capacitors | 146.7 | 136.6 | 130.6 | 121.1 |
| Total | 839.2 | 801.0 | 790.6 | 762.3 |
(来源: 10-Q Q1 FY26 Structured Data; Q2-Q4 FY25 Derived from Quarterly Filings)
| Metric | TTM (Apr '26) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 3,193 | 3,069 | 2,937 | 3,431 |
| YoY Growth (%) | n/a | +4.5% | -14.4% | -11.2% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 19.9% | 19.4% | 21.3% | 25.8% |
| Operating Margin (%) | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 8.5% |
| Net Income ($M) | 2 | (9) | (31) | 243 |
| EPS (Diluted) | 0.01 | (0.07) | (0.23) | 1.76 |
| FCF ($M) | n/a | (88) | (143) | 388 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | ~136 | ~136 | ~135 | ~138 |
(来源: TTM derived from Quarterly History; FY23-FY25 from 10-K FY25 & Prior Filings)
| Metric | Q1 '26 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 839 | 801 | 791 | 762 | 715 | 715 |
| YoY Growth (%) | +17.3% | +12.0% | +7.5% | +2.8% | -4.2% | -8.9% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 21.0% | 19.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| Operating Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.1% | -6.8% |
| EPS (Diluted) | 0.05 | 0.08 | (0.06) | 0.01 | (0.03) | (0.49) |
| OCF ($M) | 64 | 149 | 28 | (9) | 16 | 68 |
(来源: 2-Year Quarterly Financial History; 10-Q Q1 FY26)
| Segment | Rev Q1'26 ($M) | YoY % | OP Margin Q1'26 | OP Margin Q1'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOSFETs | 174.0 | +22.4% | 0.8% | -6.1% |
| Diodes | 163.7 | +16.1% | 15.8% | 15.5% |
| Optoelectronics | 58.9 | +15.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% |
| Resistors | 203.7 | +13.5% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| Inductors | 92.2 | +9.6% | 27.4% | 16.5% |
| Capacitors | 146.7 | +25.0% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
(来源: 10-Q Q1 FY26 Structured Data)
"Clearly, the Vishay 3.0 transformation and our growth strategy is working... We have no intention of backsliding to the business approach of Vishay 2.0." (CEO, Q1 FY26 Call)
"Customers are beginning to proactively place orders based on longer visibility, some 1-year forecast for Vishay to scale with them." (CEO, Q1 FY26 Call)
"2026 is our year to take off... We expect the effective tax rate to become more predictable and in the range of our historical average as earnings grow." (CFO, Q1 FY26 Call)
"Newport's results continued to be reported under MOSFETs business segment, reducing that segment's gross margin by approximately 600 basis points." (CFO, Q4 FY25 Call)
"We are doing what Vishay 3.0 was designed to do... to take full advantage of market up cycles." (CEO, Q1 FY26 Call)
"AI data center revenue was less than $100 million last year; this year it will be significantly higher... AI growth rate is 20% (high double digits)." (Management, Q1 FY26 Call Q&A)
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| 指标 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 3,500 | 4,000 | 4,500 |
| YoY % | +14% | +14% | +13% |
| Gross Margin | 22.5% | 27% | 30% |
| OP Margin | 6% | 13% | 18% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.80 | $2.50 | $4.30 |
| FCF ($M) | -50 | +250 | +500 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间: $64–$80,中值 $72
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| 指标 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 3,400 | 3,750 | 4,100 |
| YoY % | +11% | +10% | +9% |
| Gross Margin | 21.5% | 24% | 26.5% |
| OP Margin | 4% | 9% | 13% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.40 | $1.40 | $2.50 |
| FCF ($M) | -80 | +100 | +280 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间: $42–$54,中值 $48
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹
| 指标 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 3,150 | 3,250 | 3,400 |
| YoY % | +3% | +3% | +5% |
| Gross Margin | 19% | 21% | 23% |
| OP Margin | 1% | 4% | 7% |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$0.10 | $0.50 | $1.10 |
| FCF ($M) | -150 | -40 | +80 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间: $19–$30,中值 $25
| 指标 | 当前值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| TTM P/E | 2821.8x | TTM Fundamentals |
| Forward P/E | N/A | Valuation Inputs |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.3x | TTM Fundamentals |
| P/S (TTM) | 2.0x | TTM Fundamentals |
| KPI | 频率 | 警戒值 | 为何重要 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book-to-Bill | 季度 | <1.0x | 需求拐点先行指标，跌破则 Bear 情景概率上升 |
| Gross Margin | 季度 | <21% | Itzehoe/Newport 整合效率试金石，低于此值证伪复苏 |
| MOSFETs OP Margin | 季度 | <2% | Newport 扭亏进度直接映射，持续低位触发减值风险 |
| Free Cash Flow | 季度 | 连续3季<-50M | 股息安全垫阈值，恶化或迫使融资摊薄 |
| AI Data Center Rev | 季度 | <$30M/Q | Bull Case 核心驱动，不及预期则下调 FY27 营收桥 |
| CapEx / Sales | 季度 | >15% | 资本开支纪律红线，超标挤压 FCF 转正时点 |
| Effective Tax Rate | 季度 | >45% | 净利释放阻力，异常高税率掩盖运营改善 |
| Channel Inventory | 月度 | >22周 | 分销商补库可持续性验证，过高预示二次去库风险 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 关注点 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Q2 股息支付 | 现金流压力测试，确认派息可持续性 |
| 2026-08-05 | Q2 FY26 财报 | B/B 趋势、GM 能否维持 21%+、AI 收入披露 |
| 2026-09-15 | Itzehoe 工厂开放日 | 设备到位率、良率爬坡曲线、客户验证进度 |
| 2026-11-04 | Q3 FY26 财报 | Newport 扭亏节点、FY27 CapEx 指引细化 |
| 2026-12-01 | 投资者日/技术峰会 | AI/EV 长期 TAM 更新、中期利润率目标重述 |
| 2027-02-03 | Q4 FY26 财报 | 全年 FCF 落点、FY27 营收桥拆分、税率展望 |
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 18m IRR | 3y IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 悲观 | 0.30 | $25 | -47% | -19% |
| 中性 | 0.50 | $48 | +1% | +1% |
| 乐观 | 0.20 | $72 | +52% | +15% |
| 加权 | 1.00 | $46 | -3% | -1% |
Thesis: VSH处于"Vishay 3.0"重资本转型阵痛期,Q1 FY26订单与毛利率双拐点初现(Book-to-Bill 1.34、GM回升至21%),AI数据中心与汽车SiC构成FY27后的二阶弹性。关键上行变量是Itzehoe H2'26按期投产+Newport扭亏(每兑现一项给毛利率200-300bps),下行变量是FCF连续两年为负(累计>$200M)可能迫使股息削减。当前$47.25已隐含中性情景的P/S 2.0x定价,在 FY27 EPS可见度提升前,18个月目标价 $48(中性 EV/Sales 2.2x + EV/EBITDA 11x 综合),维持 Hold。
Confidence: medium(Q1拐点信号清晰,但同业倍数与历史区间数据缺失,Itzehoe投产时点与AI收入披露为关键观察项)